Space rescue services needed? 2 'stranded' astronaut incidents are a 'massive wake-up call,' experts say

太空救援服务有必要吗？专家表示两起宇航员“滞留”事件需警钟长鸣

China's decision to delay the return of its Shenzhou 20 astronauts from the country's space station due to a possible space debris impact has led to yet another "stranded in space" state of affairs. The situation is also sparking discussion of space rescue planning — or lack of it.

受太空垃圾的不确定性影响，中国方面决定推迟神舟二十号宇航员从空间站返回地球的事项。这是又一个“太空滞留”事件，也引发了有关是否制定太空救援计划的讨论。

That trio of Chinese astronauts — Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui and Wang Jie — have been orbiting Earth for more than six months. Prior to the landing delay, the Shenzhou 20 trio had handed over operation of the Tiangong space station to the newly arrived Shenzhou 21 crew. They were due to return back to Earth under parachute on Nov. 5., but the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) announced the landing wave-off the same day, explaining that the crew's spacecraft "is suspected of being struck by small space debris and impact analysis and risk assessment [s] are underway."

陈冬、陈中瑞和王杰，三名中国宇航员已绕地球飞行六个多月。在决定延迟返回着陆前，神舟二十号三人组已将天宫空间站的运转任务移交给了即将抵达的神舟二十一号机组人员，原定11月5日乘坐降落伞返回地球，但中国载人航天局（CMSA）在同一天宣布延迟返回着陆，解释为机组人员的航天器“疑似被小型太空碎片击中，影响分析和风险评估正在进行”。

The CMSA provided a brief on the status of the crew on Nov. 11, writing that "Following the postponement of the Shenzhou-20 manned spacecraft return mission, the project team, adhering to the principles of 'life first, safety first,' immediately activated emergency plans and measures" and that "All work is progressing steadily and orderly according to plan." However, the statement does not elaborate on what specific issue the Shenzhou 20 encountered or where the problem lies. Some speculation revolves around a possible launch, if needed, of an uncrewed Shenzhou 22 spacecraft as a replacement vehicle for the damaged spacecraft. In light of details provided by China's space agency, experts are now left to wonder what the state of the Shenzhou 20 relief efforts might be.

11月11日，国家安全总局通报了乘组人员情况，并称：“神舟二十号载人飞船返回任务推迟后，项目组本着‘生命至上、安全第一’的原则，立即启动了应急预案和措施，”同时表示“各项工作正按照计划稳步有序推进。”但声明并未详细说明神舟二十号所遇到的具体问题，以及问题所在。对此外界有一些猜测，如果有需要，中方可能会发射一艘无人驾驶的神舟22号飞船，作为受损飞船的替代飞行器。在中国航天局提供具体细节后，专家们正在琢磨着神舟20号救援工作进展。

"I wonder out loud why they would not be more forthcoming about specifics of the event," responds Darren McKnight, an orbital debris specialist and senior technical fellow of LeoLabs, a group dedicated to space domain awareness.

达伦·麦克奈特(Darren McKnight)是一位太空垃圾专家，也是LeoLabs的高级技术研究员，其所在的LeoLabs是一个致力于太空领域意识的组织。他对此回应道：“我急切的想知道他们为什么不愿意透露更多细节。”

McKnight observes that the Chinese are not usually forthcoming about anything where they would 'lose face,' a very Eastern philosophy. "However, we are all now citizens of the space environment and lack of communication about events such as this hurts everyone," McKnight told Space.com.

麦克奈特观察到中国人通常不会对令其”丢脸”的事情直言不讳，这是一种典型的东方哲学。麦克奈特在Space.com上如是说：“但现在我们都是受益于太空环境的公民，对类似事件的沟通不畅会损害每个人的权益。”

The space debris expert has been trying to tally debris impact events in low Earth orbit for years, especially those that cause mission-degrading or mission-terminating effects. McKnight's on-going work is a way to map the evolution of the space environmental effects.

多年来，太空垃圾专家一直在统计近地轨道上的碎片撞击事件，特别是造成任务推迟或任务废止的事件。麦克奈特所进行的工作是寻找太空环境影响演变图的绘制方法。

"These low-level indicators will be precursors for more significant events, events that many people call the Kessler Syndrome," said McKnight. He has been working on what he terms the "four waves" of the Kessler Syndrome as a means to anticipate how quickly the environment is evolving.

麦克奈特说：“这些基础指标将预示着更重要的事件，许多人称之为凯斯勒综合症。”他一直在研究其所谓的凯斯勒综合症“四波”，以此预见环境演变速度的快慢。

In regards to China's Shenzhou spacecraft reentry predicament, "the lack of transparency of these events makes it difficult to model the future," McKnight said. "By the way, it is not just this case. I know of several mission-degrading events happening with commercial satellites over the last couple of decades," that deserve to be detailed, McKnight said, events that would also help better assess the space debris-riddled environment.

关于中国神舟飞船再入困境的事件，麦克奈特说：“与其相关的事件都缺乏透明度，很难说明其未来发展；顺便说一句，事情还远远没那么简单。在过去几十年里，我了解到商业卫星发生了好几起事件致使其任务延迟，这都值得详细介绍，对事件的说明也有助于更好地评估太空碎片遍布的环境。”

Jan Osburg is a senior engineer for the RAND Corporation's engineering and applied sciences department in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. RAND is a global policy think tank. Osburg spoke to Space.com to share his personal take, not as a representative of or spokesperson for RAND.

坐落于宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡的兰德公司是一家全球政策智库，扬·奥斯伯格（Jan Osburg）便是来自其工程和应用科学部门的高级工程师。奥斯伯格在接受Space.com采访时并没有以兰德公司的代表或发言人的身份发言，而是分享了他的个人观点。

"I was positively surprised that the Chinese made even the initial public announcement, since they generally have not been all that forthcoming with information about their program," Osburg said. "But it certainly is a bad situation. Hopefully the astronauts can come safely back to Earth soon."

奥斯伯格表示：“我甚至对中国首次宣布公开事件感到非常惊讶，因为他们通常不会提到各种有关其计划的信息。”“但这个情况确实很糟，希望宇航员能快一些安全返回地球。”

But Osburg said his "big-picture takeaway" is that two separate "stranded in space" incidents within about a year of each other "should be a massive wake-up call that a space rescue capability/organization is needed."

但奥斯伯格表示，他的“大局要点”是：这一年左右独立的两起“太空滞留”事件应该警钟长鸣，这表明太空救援能力或组织很有必要。”

Last year's Boeing Starliner mission was flown by NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams in June 2024 to the International Space Station (ISS) for what was slated to be approximately a 10-day stay.

去年波音的星际客船任务由NASA宇航员巴里·威尔莫尔（Butch Wilmore）和苏尼·威廉姆斯（Suni Williams）执行，于2024年6月飞往国际空间站(ISS)，预计将停留10天。

While Starliner did get to the ISS safely, the craft did experience propulsion-system helium leaks and thruster failures en route. Those problems pushed NASA to extend the Wilmore and Williams stay aboard the ISS. Starliner returned to Earth uncrewed in September 2024.

虽然星际客船安全到达了国际空间站，但飞行器在飞行途中遭遇了推进系统的氦气泄漏和推进器故障。这些问题导致美国宇航局延迟威尔莫尔和威廉姆斯在国际空间站的停留时间。星际客船最终于2024年9月以未载人的情况下返回地球。

Williams and Wilmore were reassigned to a long-duration ISS mission, later to return back to Earth in March 2025 in a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. But the Boeing Starliner situation and now the China Shenzhou episode were lucky events, said Osburg.

威廉姆斯和威尔莫尔被重新分配到国际空间站执行长期任务，后于2025年3月乘坐SpaceX载人龙飞船返回地球。奥斯伯格却说，波音星际客船事件和如今的中国神舟事件的发生都算是幸运的。

"Both incidents have occurred during missions to a space station, where the station can act as a safe haven until a rescue plan can be put in place," Osburg pointed out. "But especially on the commercial side there are 'free-flyer' missions where docking with a station is typically not an option, and rescue has to happen quickly due to limited on-board supplies in those capsules," he said.

奥斯伯格指出：“这两起事件都发生在空间站任务执行期间，在救援计划执行到位前，空间站可以充当避风港。但商业性质的太空舱尤其注意，‘自由飞行’通常不会选择对接空间站，考虑到太空舱中的船上物资有限，救援必须越快越好。”

Osburg said a "big enabler" would be compatible docking systems - or another way to transfer spacefarers from a vessel in distress to another vehicle. So too would be compatible communications systems, as well as established rescue coordination procedures — similar to what has evolved in the maritime world over the last few decades, he said.

奥斯伯格表示，兼容对接系统将是一个“万能方案”，也可以选择另一种方式，将宇航员从一艘遇险的太空舱转移到另一艘太空舱。兼容的通信系统以及既定的救援协调程序也是如此设定，这类似于过去几十年的海事发展历程。

"One of the points I've been trying to make," Osburg continued, "is that creating an initial space rescue capability does not have to be expensive or involve setting up a new government agency or the like. It could be done with a few million dollars per year, which is 'in the noise' for human spaceflight costs."

奥斯伯格继续说道：“我一直想要说明的是，初始太空救援能力的创建不一定很昂贵，也不一定要建立新的政府机构或其他机构。它可以用每年几百万美元的价格来完成，这对于载人航天来说成本是可以接受的。”

Those monies could fund a small independent non-profit organization with a handful of people, said Osburg, working on the topic at the strategic level by advocating standardization, performing planning exercises, but also standing ready to provide operational coordination in case of an actual space rescue incident, he said.

奥斯伯格说道：“这些钱可以资助一个小型独立非营利组织，成员可以只有寥寥几人，有标准化和工作规划。”他表示：”在战略层面上可以致力于太空救援事件一个主题，但也要随时准备在实际情况下提供运营协调。”

"But whatever the way forward, hopefully something is set up soon, before the next incident happens," Osburg concluded.

奥斯伯格总结道：“但无论未来如何，我希望在下一次事件发生之前尽快采取措施。”

Editor's note: China's space agency issued a statement on Nov. 11 about the status of the Shenzhou 20 crew. This piece has been updated to reflect the statement.

编者注：中国航天局于11月11日就神舟二十号机组人员的状况发表了一份声明。已就该声明更新该文章。