后疫情时代的“轻骑兵”：远程窄体飞机研究
"Light Cavalry" in Post-Epidemic Era: Research on Long-range Narrow-body Aircraft
2020年突发的新冠肺炎疫情造成了巨大的社会经济影响，给航空业带来前所未有的重创。而据IATA预测，到2024年，全球旅行需求才能恢复到2019年大流行前的水平。同时，疫情导致的全球超半数飞机停飞，国际远程运输形势也变得尤为严峻。这些种种复杂情况致使诸多航空公司面临停业甚至倒闭的风险。面对出行需求爆减、部分航线停运，航空公司不得不调整机队结构，成本高、能耗大的大型宽体飞机退役加速，更高效、更环保、更远程的新型窄体飞机或成为未来航空市场的宠儿。
The sudden outbreak of the New Crown Pneumonia epidemic in 2020 had a huge socio-economic impact, hitting the aviation industry harder than ever before. And according to IATA forecasts, global travel demand will only return to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 by 2024. At the same time, the international long-haul situation has become particularly challenging with the grounding of more than half of the world's aircraft as a result of the pandemic. These complications have put many airlines at risk of closure or even closure. In the face of the burgeoning demand for travel and the suspension of some routes, airlines have had to adjust their fleet structure. The retirement of large wide-body aircraft with high costs and high energy consumption has accelerated, and new narrow-body aircraft that are more efficient, more environmentally friendly and more long-range may become the darling of the future aviation market.
窄体飞机的概念与分类
Concept and Classification of Narrow Body Aircraft
窄体飞机的基本特点是客舱只有一条中央过道；单排6座或5座布局，少数飞机为单排4座；窄机身设计最大宽度约4.0米左右；座位数约100~200座，少数机型达到200~250座；满客航程约4500~7000千米，典型机型为波音737系列和空中客车A320系列等。
The basic features of narrow-body aircraft are only one central aisle in the cabin; a single row of 6 or 5 seats, with a few aircraft having a single row of 4 seats; a narrow fuselage design with a maximum width of about 4.0 metres; a seating capacity of about 100-200 seats, with a few models reaching 200-250 seats; and a full passenger range of about 4,500-7,000 kilometres, with typical models such as the Boeing 737 series and the Airbus A320 series.
同时，根据载客量/座位数和航程，可将窄体飞机分为小型、大型和超大型三类。大型窄体飞机为传统主流机型，典型代表是波音737和A320系列的中小座级型，包括A319neo、A320neo、波音737-7/-8/-9、MS-21-300/200、C919等新研制的机型。超大型窄体飞机的典型机型为波音757200/-300、A320neo/LR/XLR和波音737-10。小型窄体飞机是最近十多年发展起来的新类型，用于填补大型窄体飞机与喷气支线飞机之间的市场间隙，典型飞机为空客A220（原庞巴迪C系列）和巴航工业E195-E2。
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft can be divided into three categories: small, large and very large, based on passenger capacity/seat capacity and range. Large narrow-body aircraft are the traditional mainstream aircraft, typically represented by the Boeing 737 and A320 series of small and medium-seat models, including the A319neo, A320neo, Boeing 737-7/-8/-9, MS-21-300/200, C919 and other newly developed models. Small narrow-body aircraft are a new type of aircraft developed in the last decade or so to fill the gap between large narrow-body aircraft and jet regional aircraft, typically the Airbus A220 (formerly Bombardier CSeries) and the BAA E195-E2.
远程窄体飞机概述及国内外运用情况
Overview of long-range narrow-body aircraft and their use at home and abroad
远程窄体飞机是在窄体飞机的基础上，通过改良现已成熟的机型，实现更远的飞行航程，完成中途不着陆的洲际跨洋飞行。根据相关资料显示，目前典型的机型包括：波音737-800、737MAX系列和空客A321neo、A321LR、A321XLR。
The long-range narrow-body aircraft is based on the narrow-body aircraft, and through the improvement of the now mature aircraft type, to achieve a longer flight range, to complete the intercontinental transoceanic flight without landing. According to relevant information, typical aircraft types include: Boeing 737-800, 737MAX series and Airbus A321neo, A321LR and A321XLR.
就国内而言，南航曾用737MAX 8执飞乌鲁木齐至圣彼得堡航线，东海航空曾使用737800执飞深圳至澳大利亚达尔文航线，这两条航线航班时长都在5小时40分钟左右。国际方面，巴拿马航空使用737-800 开通了乌拉圭首都蒙得维的亚至巴拿马城的直航航班，距离接近5450千米，航班耗时约7小时20分钟。此外，巴西高尔航空曾使用737MAX 8执飞巴西利亚前往坎昆、迈阿密和奥兰多的直飞航班，最大航程超过6500千米。而空客A321neo在推出后深受航司喜欢，菲律宾航空曾使用A321neo执飞马尼拉和悉尼之间的航班，航班时长8小时35分钟；A321LR和A321XLR均为A321neo的衍生型，A321LR在可搭载206名乘客的情况下能够持续飞行7400千米；A321XLR则作为A321LR的增程型，在航程、座位数甚至是单座油耗方面都实现巨大提升，最大航程为8700千米，可搭乘240名乘客，同时单座燃油消耗比上一代竞争机型（波音757-200）降低30%，成为目前全球航程最长的单通道超远程窄体客机。
Domestically, China Southern Airlines has used the 737 MAX 8 on its Urumqi to St. Petersburg route and East China Sea Airlines has used the 737800 on its Shenzhen to Darwin, Australia route, both of which lasted around 5 hours and 40 minutes. Internationally, Air Panama operated a direct flight from Montevideo, Uruguay to Panama City on a 737-800, a distance of nearly 5,450 km and a flight time of about 7 hours and 20 minutes. In addition, Air Gore has operated non-stop flights from Brasilia to Cancun, Miami and Orlando with the 737 MAX 8, with a maximum range of more than 6,500 kilometres. The Airbus A321neo has been a popular choice since its launch, with Philippine Airlines using the A321neo on flights between Manila and Sydney lasting 8 hours and 35 minutes; the A321LR and A321XLR are both derivatives of the A321neo, with the A321LR capable of flying 7,400 kilometres with 206 passengers; the A321XLR The A321XLR is an extended-range version of the A321LR, with a huge increase in range, seating capacity and even fuel consumption per seat, with a maximum range of 8,700 km and 240 passengers, while consuming 30% less fuel per seat than its predecessor (Boeing 757-200), making it the world's longest-range single-aisle ultra-long-range narrowbody passenger aircraft.
远程窄体飞机市场与发展前景分析
Long-range narrow-body aircraft market and growth prospects
窄体飞机是针对特定的航空运输市场需求而发展的，面向的航空市场主要是大国的国内中远距离航线和中小国家密集区域的国际航线，同时也能兼顾近距离航线。从整个航空运输市场来看，上述这些市场规模最大，对飞机的需求最大，因此窄体飞机成为目前使用最为广泛、数量最多的一类民用飞机。加之窄体飞机成本相对较低、油耗相对较少的特点，其用户主要是干线航空公司和新兴的低成本航空公司。
Narrow-body aircraft are developed for specific air transport market needs and are aimed at the domestic medium and long-range routes of large countries and international routes in dense regions of small and medium-sized countries, while also being able to take into account the close range routes. In terms of the overall air transport market, these markets are the largest and have the greatest demand for aircraft, making narrow-bodied aircraft the most widely used and most numerous type of civil aircraft at present. The relatively low cost and low fuel consumption of narrow-body aircraft has led to their use by mainline airlines and emerging low-cost carriers.
相较于窄体飞机而言，宽体飞机，尤其是大型、超大型宽体飞机面临的形势则格外严峻。早在疫情前大型宽体飞机市场就已产生下滑的趋势，突发的疫情更是雪上加霜。而这对窄体飞机，特别是针对国际航线的远程窄体飞机来说可谓是打响市场的绝佳机会。首先，低客流量的出入境航线，远程窄体飞机显然比远程宽体飞机带来更高的运营回报，适宜的载客量和超长航程正是目前很多航司所需要的；其次，为中小、低成本航司带来新的发展机遇，远程窄体飞机拥有的低维护和运营成本、低机组机型转换成本以及低跑道硬件要求等优势，使得更多中小、低成本航司试水洲际航线；同时，远程窄体飞机的出现开拓了洲际点对点直飞市场，使得二线和三线城市在洲际航线上获得更多的话语权。此外，远程窄体飞机也在旅客体验方面做出多种尝试，提升整体客舱空间，提高舒适感。比如窄体机全平躺商务舱、机上WiFi、“空客飞行空间”内饰、“波音天空内饰”等新一代客舱内饰的出现，已经完全打破“小飞机压抑、不舒服”的传统观念。因此，在基于疫情常态化背景下实现跨洋洲际飞行，远程窄体飞机可以说是拥有极好的发展前景。
Compared to narrow-body aircraft, wide-body aircraft, especially large and very large wide-body aircraft, are facing a particularly difficult situation. The market for large wide-body aircraft was already in decline before the epidemic, and the sudden outbreak of the epidemic has added to this. This is the perfect opportunity for narrow-body aircraft, especially long-range narrow-body aircraft for international routes, to make a splash in the market. Firstly, long-range narrow-body aircraft are clearly more profitable than long-range wide-body aircraft on low-traffic routes, and the appropriate passenger capacity and long range are exactly what many carriers need at present. At the same time, the emergence of long-range narrow-body aircraft has opened up the intercontinental point-to-point market, giving second- and third-tier cities a greater voice on intercontinental routes. In addition, long-haul narrow-body aircraft have also made various attempts to enhance the overall cabin space and improve comfort in terms of passenger experience. For example, the emergence of a new generation of cabin interiors, such as the fully flat business class on narrow-body aircraft, in-flight WiFi, "Airbus Flying Space" interiors and "Boeing Sky Interiors", has completely broken the traditional perception of "small aircraft being depressing and uncomfortable". The traditional notion of "small planes are depressing and uncomfortable". Therefore, based on the background of the normalisation of epidemics to achieve intercontinental flights across oceans, long-range narrow-body aircraft can be said to have excellent prospects for development.
当前国际航空市场形势与发展建议
Current International Aviation Market Situation and Development Suggestions
根据民航局发布的2020年全年和2021年1~2月我国国际航空旅客运输数据显示，当前我国国际航空运输市场发展虽然仍存在不确定性，但只要明晰市场发展趋势，利用远程窄体飞机优势，这对国内航司效益增收将带来积极的推动作用。
According to China's international air passenger transport data released by the Civil Aviation Administration for the whole year of 2020 and January to February 2021, although there is still uncertainty in the current development of China's international air transport market, as long as the market development trend is clear and the advantages of long-range narrow-body aircraft are utilised, this will bring a positive boost to the efficiency and revenue of domestic airlines.
一方面，我国国际航班数量不断进行调整，国际客运量也随之受到影响。在国内外疫情猛烈暴发时，各国陆续出台出入境管制措施，大量削减航班数量，客运需求也大幅下挫；进入疫情常态化阶段，我国采取“国际航班‘五个一’政策”，保证国际旅客运输；而今年2月以后巴西、印度等地暴发一波更大规模的疫情反弹潮，各国根据形势暂停甚至关闭边境口岸，加之今年5月份以来，中国民航局连续对多家外国航司发出熔断指令，国际客运也因此受到一定程度的影响。
On the one hand, the number of international flights in China is constantly being adjusted, and the volume of international passenger traffic has been affected accordingly. During the outbreak of the epidemic at home and abroad, countries introduced entry and exit control measures one after another, cutting the number of flights and significantly reducing passenger demand; when the epidemic became normalised, China adopted the "five-one" policy for international flights to ensure international passenger transport. In addition, since May this year, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has continuously issued meltdown orders to a number of foreign airlines, which has affected international passenger traffic to a certain extent.
另一方面，根据当前国际航空市场情况分析，国际疫情形势虽然依旧不容乐观。在疫情常态化基础上，各国经过研判分析，适时调整边境政策，复航部分国际航线，增加国际航班数量，保证国际客运需求。就近期了解到的相关国际政策来看，如美国4月26日已经宣布允许国际留学生入境赴美学习；5月以来，法国、希腊、西班牙等欧洲国家对中国调整入境措施，允许中国人民入境。就国内部分航司国际航线规划而言，如东航1~3月计划执飞25条国际航线，由此可见，国际市场正在一步步向好。此外，在疫苗护照的试行、全球范围内加速疫苗接种的催化下，各国人民对于文化及生活幸福感的追求，都促使国际航线快速恢复。
On the other hand, according to the current analysis of the international aviation market situation, the international epidemic situation is still not optimistic though. On the basis of the normalisation of the epidemic, countries, after research and analysis, have adjusted their border policies in due course, resumed some international routes and increased the number of international flights to ensure international passenger demand. As far as we know, the United States announced on April 26 that it would allow international students to enter the country to study; since May, France, Greece, Spain and other European countries have adjusted their entry measures for China and allowed Chinese people to enter the country. In terms of international route planning for some domestic airlines, for example, China Eastern Airlines plans to fly 25 international routes from January to March, which shows that the international market is improving step by step. In addition, the piloting of vaccine passports, the worldwide acceleration of vaccination catalysts, and the pursuit of culture and well-being of people in all countries have all contributed to the rapid recovery of international routes.
结合上述分析，可以看出国家或地区的经济恢复需求、安全形势以及客运需求决定了航线是否具备开通或飞行条件，而航线航程以及执飞机型的选用影响着航司的运营成本和经济效益。根据目前国际形势，可以看出国际航线的有效复苏仍有待疫苗普及和各国间健康互认措施推行，考虑到日韩、东南亚（除印度外）等部分地区疫情控制较为得力，有专家预计未来东亚、东南亚地区国际航空市场恢复速率更快。而从国际航空客运需求与飞机机型适配度分析，疫情常态化形势下窄体飞机市场将会持续向好；中欧、中美等远程洲际航线在考虑其地区安全形势、运输需求等相关因素后，远程窄体飞机可作为远程宽体飞机的有力补充，加快促进国际航空运输市场回暖。
Combined with the above analysis, it can be seen that the economic recovery needs of a country or region, the security situation and passenger demand determine the availability of routes or flight conditions, while the range of routes and the choice of aircraft to be operated affects the operating costs and economic efficiency of the airline. According to the current international situation, it can be seen that the effective recovery of international airlines is still pending the popularisation of vaccines and the implementation of mutual recognition of health measures between countries, taking into account the more effective control of the epidemic in some areas such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia (except India), some experts expect the recovery rate of the international aviation market in East Asia and Southeast Asia to be faster in the future. From the analysis of international air passenger demand and aircraft type suitability, the narrow-body aircraft market will continue to improve under the normal situation of the epidemic; long-haul intercontinental routes such as China-Europe and China-US, after considering their regional security situation, transport demand and other related factors, long-haul narrow-body aircraft can serve as a strong complement to long-haul wide-body aircraft and accelerate the rebound of the international air transport market.
疫情带给全球航空业的损失是不言而喻的，但也在一定程度上为航空产业未来的发展带来新的机遇。航空公司需顺应时代变化趋势，做好发展规划，适时调整机队结构，实现运营效益稳步回升。首先，针对现阶段航司复航的远程航线，结合当地疫情防控形势，分析该航线的市场运输需求，预估宽体飞机和窄体飞机两种机型在资源消耗、运行效率等方面的差异，在满足运输需求的同时降低飞机运营成本，争取效益最大化。其次，根据国际航线两地地区经济发展、地方政策、枢纽建设等情况，航司可适时调整航线，利用国内正在培育的准一线枢纽机场优势，开通直达中美、中欧等地区的远程航线。而远程窄体飞机所具备的成本低、距离远、效率高的优势正符合现下行业发展趋势，因此在未来战略布局中，应更多考虑运用远程窄体飞机参与常态化疫情下的国际航线执飞，降低远程宽体飞机带来的成本消耗，缓解国际运输压力，为加快全球航空运输产业复苏做出积极的贡献。
The damage brought by the epidemic to the global aviation industry is self-evident, but it also brings new opportunities for the future development of the aviation industry to a certain extent. Airlines need to follow the changing trends of the times, make good development plans, adjust their fleet structure at the right time and achieve a steady rebound in operational efficiency. Firstly, for the long-haul routes that the airline is now resuming, it should analyse the market demand for transport on these routes in light of the local epidemic prevention and control situation, and estimate the differences in resource consumption and operational efficiency between wide-body and narrow-body aircraft types, in order to meet transport demand while reducing aircraft operating costs and maximising benefits. Secondly, according to the economic development, local policies and hub construction in the two regions of international routes, airlines can adjust their routes at the right time and take advantage of the quasi-first-tier hub airports being cultivated in China to open direct long-haul routes to China, the United States, Central Europe and other regions. The advantages of low cost, long distance and high efficiency of long-range narrow-body aircraft are in line with the current development trend of the industry. Therefore, in the future strategic layout, more consideration should be given to using long-range narrow-body aircraft to fly international routes under the regular epidemic, so as to reduce the cost consumption brought about by long-range wide-body aircraft, alleviate the pressure on international transportation and make a positive contribution to speeding up the recovery of the global air transport industry.
