全球石油库存跌向“运营底线”

Global oil inventories fall towards 'operational bottom line'

全球石油库存正以创纪录的速度下降，各国抵御供应冲击的战略缓冲能力正遭受严重削弱。据彭博社9日报道，霍尔木兹海峡封锁近两个月以来，全球石油供应减少约10亿桶。高盛指出，全球显性石油库存已接近2018年以来的最低水平。

Global oil inventories are declining at a record pace, severely weakening countries' strategic buffers to withstand supply shocks. According to Bloomberg on the 9th, nearly two months of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global oil supply by approximately 1 billion barrels. Goldman Sachs points out that global visible oil inventories are approaching their lowest levels since 2018.

沙特阿美、壳牌、埃克森美孚、道达尔能源等国际油企巨头纷纷发出警示，指出供应冲击已导致全球库存急剧消耗，部分地区陷入采购困境，而中东地缘局势的僵持，更让市场恢复之路雪上加霜。

International oil giants including Saudi Aramco, Shell, ExxonMobil, and TotalEnergies have issued warnings, indicating that supply shocks have led to a sharp depletion of global inventories, with some regions facing procurement difficulties. The stalemate in Middle Eastern geopolitics is further exacerbating the market's recovery path.

市场真正担心的，并不是库存是否会“耗尽”，而是库存是否会过早跌至维持能源体系正常运转所需的“运营底线”。摩根大通全球大宗商品研究主管娜塔莎·卡内瓦表示，“库存相当于全球石油体系的缓冲垫。”她指出，由于管道、储罐和炼厂运行本身需要维持最低库存水平，市场往往会在库存真正耗尽之前，就先触及影响供应体系正常运转的“运营底线”。

What the market truly fears is not whether inventories will be "exhausted," but whether they will fall too early below the "operational floor" required to maintain the normal functioning of the energy system. Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at JPMorgan, stated, "Inventories are the cushion of the global oil system." She noted that because pipelines, storage tanks, and refinery operations themselves require minimum inventory levels, the market often hits the "operational floor" that affects the normal functioning of the supply system before inventories are truly depleted.

亚洲受中东石油供应短缺的影响最为严重。地理空间分析公司Kayrros联合创始人安托万·哈尔夫表示，中国以外的亚太地区石油库存降幅最为明显。日本和印度的库存在冲突爆发后分别下降了50%和10%，目前处于至少十年来的季节性低点。此外，贸易商指出，印尼、越南和菲律宾的情况最为堪忧，其燃料库存可能在一个月内降至警戒水平。

Asia has been hit hardest by the shortage of Middle Eastern oil supplies. Antoine Halff, co-founder of geospatial analytics company Kayrros, said that oil inventory declines are most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region outside China. Japan and India have seen their inventories fall by 50% and 10% respectively since the conflict began, reaching seasonal lows not seen in at least a decade. Additionally, traders point out that Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are in the most precarious situation, with their fuel inventories potentially falling to alarm within a month.

相比之下，欧洲当前最大的风险集中在航空燃料。数据显示，自中东冲突开始以来，阿姆斯特丹—鹿特丹—安特卫普枢纽的独立仓储库存已下降1/3，降至6年来的最低水平。随着夏季旅游旺季临近，欧洲的航空煤油库存也在迅速消耗。部分分析师预测，其库存最早可能在6月达到临界水平。

By contrast, Europe's current biggest risk is focused on aviation fuel. The data shows that since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, the independent warehousing inventory at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub has dropped by 1/3 to the lowest level in six years. Europe's aviation kerosene stocks are also rapidly depleting as the peak summer tourist season approaches. Some analysts predict that its inventories could reach critical levels as early as June.

在美国，受出口激增的影响，其国内原油和燃料库存已降至历史平均水平以下。数据显示，包括战略石油储备在内的美国原油库存已连续4周下降。尽管美国的石油钻探商已开始增产，但企业高管警告称，短期内库存可能仍将持续下降。

In the United States, driven by surging exports, domestic crude and fuel inventories have fallen below historical averages. Data shows that total U.S. crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have declined for four consecutive weeks. Although U.S. oil drillers have begun increasing production, corporate executives warn that inventories may continue to decline in the short term.

能源贸易商贡沃尔集团研究主管弗雷德里克·拉塞尔预判，若海峡封锁持续至6月初，一些亚洲国家将因柴油短缺而面临宏观经济冲击;相比之下，欧洲的缓冲空间仅多出一个月左右，随后局势也将变得难以控制。

Frederic Lasserre, Head of Research at energy trader Gunvor Group, predicted that if the strait blockade lasts until early June, some Asian countries will face macroeconomic shocks due to diesel shortages; By contrast, Europe has just a month or so more buffer space, and then the situation will also become unmanageable.

在国际能源署的协调下，多国政府已承诺动用创纪录的4亿桶紧急石油储备。然而，相关政府正陷入一个两难境地：如果释放更多库存以抑制油价，将进一步削弱现有的缓冲屏障。彭博社分析称，长远来看，即便航道重新开放，海湾地区的产量和航运也不大可能立即恢复正常。而全球库存的剧烈缩减意味着，即便海峡重开，市场也将面临额外的压力，因为届时政府和企业将争相补库。

Under the coordination of the International Energy Agency, multiple governments have committed to releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves. However, relevant governments are caught in a dilemma: releasing more inventories to suppress oil prices will further weaken existing. Bloomberg analysis indicates that in the long run, even if the waterway reopens, Gulf production and shipping are unlikely to return to normal immediately. The sharp contraction in global inventories means that even if the strait reopens, the market will face additional pressure, as governments and companies will scramble to replenish stocks.

值得注意的是，这10亿桶的供应缺口仍在每日扩大，即便霍尔木兹海峡立即无条件开放，允许油轮自由通航，其对市场的影响也将持续数月之久。更令人担忧的是，美国总统特朗普已明确拒绝伊朗对美方起草的和平提案所作出的回应，这意味着短期内霍尔木兹海峡全面恢复通航的希望十分渺茫，全球油市的供应压力将进一步加剧。

Notably, this 1 billion barrel supply gap continues to widen daily. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were immediately and unconditionally reopened to allow tankers free passage, its impact on the market would last for several months. More worryingly, U.S. President Donald Trump has explicitly rejected Iran's response to the U.S.-drafted peace proposal, meaning hopes for a full resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term are very slim, further intensifying supply pressure in the global oil market.

除沙特阿美外，壳牌、埃克森美孚、道达尔能源等国际油企巨头也纷纷就油市局势发出警示，一致认为全球油市的恢复将是一个漫长的过程。

In addition to Saudi Aramco, international oil giants such as Shell, ExxonMobil, and TotalEnergies have also issued warnings about the oil market situation, unanimously agreeing that the recovery of the global oil market will be a long process.

综合环球时报、汇通财经整理报道

Comprehensive reports from Global Times and Huitong Finance