U.S. tariff tsunami wrecks disproportionate havoc on African economies

美国关税海啸对非洲经济造成不成比例的重创。

ADDIS ABABA, April 30 (Xinhua) -- Lesotho, a small southern African country and one of the world's least developed countries, is facing grave concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50 percent "reciprocal tariff" on it.

新华社亚的斯亚贝巴4月30日电在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对莱索托—一个南部非洲小国、世界最不发达国家之一，征收50%的“对等关税”后，引发巨大担忧。

The move threatens Lesotho's economy, which is heavily dependent on textile exports.

此举威胁到严重依赖纺织品出口的莱索托经济。

The U.S. tariff policy has triggered widespread criticism and caused economic turmoil worldwide. For Africa, home to 33 of the world's 46 least developed countries, the impact poses a significant threat to their development and industrialization.

美国关税政策遭致广泛批评，并在全球范围内造成经济动荡。非洲集中了全球46个最不发达国家中的33个，关税冲击对其工业化进程与发展前景构成严重威胁。

Most African economies are still in the early stage of development, with limited diversification and resilience to external risk, especially given their reliance on exports.

大多数非洲经济体仍处于早期发展阶段，尤其是鉴于其依赖出口，多样化和抵御外部风险的能力有限。

Being subject to high "reciprocal tariffs" in a limited trade with the United States is making their economies more vulnerable, revealing the disproportionate impact of the U.S. tariff policy.

由于美国的有限贸易的高额“互惠关税”，它们的经济正变得更加脆弱，揭示了美国关税政策不成比例的影响。

Critics, including U.S. media, have called the U.S. "trade loss theory" untenable and absurd, saying Lesothans spend only 3 U.S. dollars per person a year on U.S. goods and services, not because they are taking advantage of the country, but because they have no money.

包括美国媒体在内的批评人士指出，美方所谓"贸易损失论"既站不住脚又荒谬可笑——莱索托国民每人每年仅消费3美元美国商品与服务，这并非在占美国便宜，而是根本没钱消费。

Carlos Lopes, former executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, said Lesotho exports over 50 percent of its garment products to the United States, adding that the tariffs will inflict severe pain on its garment processing industry, a key economic pillar, leading to declining exports, factory shutdowns and massive job cuts.

联合国非洲经济委员会前执行秘书卡洛斯·洛佩斯表示，莱索托50%以上的服装产品出口到美国，并补充说，关税将让其关键的经济支柱服装加工业遭受巨大打击，导致出口下降、工厂关闭和大规模裁员。

Noting that African economies have worked hard to integrate into global value chains under the framework of a rules-based international trading system, Lopes said that countries such as Madagascar, Lesotho and Kenya "find themselves penalized," as they have developed export-oriented sectors such as apparel, textiles, light manufacturing and agro-processing, all of which are highly vulnerable to tariff shocks.

洛佩斯指出，非洲经济体在基于规则的多边贸易体系框架下为融入全球价值链付出巨大努力，然而马达加斯加、莱索托和肯尼亚等国却遭受惩罚——这些国家发展的服装纺织、轻工制造、农产品加工等出口导向型产业，均不堪承受关税打击。

Newcomers in the lower rungs of industrialization, after years of donor-supported economic liberalization, are being blindsided by a tariff measure that was applied without regard for development levels, he added.

他补充说，在多年捐助者支持的经济自由化之后，处于工业化较低水平的新来者正被一项不考虑发展水平的关税措施弄得措手不及。

South Africa's automotive sector, which accounts for 22 percent of its total exports to the United States, is among those hardest hit by separate tariffs on foreign-made cars.

南非的汽车行业占其对美国出口总额的22%，是受外国制造汽车单独关税打击最严重的行业之一。

U.S. tariffs will have a series of negative economic impacts on African countries. Falling export earnings lead to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, placing downward pressure on national currencies. The depreciation, in turn, makes imports more expensive, driving up the cost of living in affected countries.

美国加征关税将对非洲国家产生一系列负面经济影响。出口收入下降导致外汇储备减少，给各国货币带来下行压力。反过来，贬值使进口更加昂贵，推高了受影响国家的生活成本。

Meanwhile, African countries' ability to pay debts will also be hampered due to declining export earnings and worsening economic outlooks, possibly triggering sovereign credit crises, and further weakening the ability of governments to fund development projects.

与此同时，由于出口收入下降和经济前景恶化，非洲国家偿还债务的能力也将受到阻碍，可能引发主权信贷危机，并进一步削弱政府为发展项目提供资金的能力。

The potential impact goes further beyond immediate trade disruptions. U.S. tariffs create difficulty for African enterprises to accumulate the capital needed for technological upgrading and industrial transformation through exports. As a result, Africa's industrialization process is being hindered, constraining it at the lower end of the global value chain.

潜在影响不仅仅是直接的贸易中断。美国关税使非洲企业难以通过出口积累技术升级和产业转型所需的资本。因此，非洲的工业化进程正在受到阻碍，将其束缚在全球价值链的低端。

Balew Demissie, a senior consultant at the Policy Studies Institute of Ethiopia, warned that although Ethiopia is implementing an import substitution strategy, it has yet to import key mechanical equipment to make it happen. The depreciation of its currency will undoubtedly increase costs and hinder its efforts to move up the industrial chain.

埃塞俄比亚政策研究所高级顾问Balew Demissie警告说，尽管埃塞俄比亚正在实施进口替代战略，但尚未进口关键机械设备来实现这一战略。其货币贬值无疑会增加成本，阻碍其向产业链上游移动的努力。

Facing uncertain U.S. trade policies, African countries are actively embracing the African Continental Free Trade Area deal, which aims to promote intra-African trade and investment by eliminating internal tariff barriers, establishing regional value chains, achieving economies of scale, and enhancing Africa's standing in the global trade landscape. By now, 47 out of the 55 members of the African Union have ratified the agreement.

面对不确定的美国贸易政策，非洲国家积极拥抱非洲大陆自贸区协议，该协议旨在通过消除内部关税壁垒、建立区域价值链、实现规模经济、提升非洲在全球贸易格局中的地位来促进非洲内部贸易和投资。截至目前，非洲联盟55个成员国中已有47个批准了该协议。

The World Bank estimates that by 2035, this agreement is expected to help lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty, raise Africa's total income by 450 billion dollars, and increase the continent's exports by nearly 29 percent.

世界银行估计，到2035年，该协议有望帮助3000万非洲人摆脱极端贫困，使非洲总收入增加4500亿美元，并使非洲大陆的出口增加近29%。