4亿桶石油储备将释放国际油价还会涨
400 million barrels of oil reserves will be released and international oil prices will rise
国际能源署11日发表声明说，32个成员国一致同意释放4亿桶战略石油储备，以应对因美国和以色列军事打击伊朗导致全球石油供应紧张的局面。
The International Energy Agency said in a statement on the 11th that 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to cope with the tight global oil supply situation caused by the U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran.
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示，战略石油储备的释放将根据各成员国的具体情况，在适当的时间框架内分步实施。国际能源署将在晚些时候公布释放4亿桶石油储备的具体方案，并将继续密切关注全球石油和天然气市场的变化。
IEA Administrator Fatih Birol said the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be implemented in steps and within an appropriate time frame, depending on the specific circumstances of each member country. The IEA will announce specific options for releasing 400 million barrels of oil reserves at a later date and will continue to closely monitor changes in global oil and gas markets.
比罗尔此前在一份新闻公报中表示，目前国际能源署成员国共持有超过12亿桶公共应急石油储备，此外还有约6亿桶受成员国政府管控的企业储备。根据相关机制，国际能源署成员国必须确保石油储备水平相当于至少90天的净进口量，并为应对全球石油市场可能出现的严重供应中断做好准备。
Birol previously said in a press release that IEA member countries currently hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, in addition to about 600 million barrels of corporate reserves controlled by member governments. Under the relevant mechanism, IEA member states must ensure oil reserve levels equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports and be prepared for possible severe supply disruptions to global oil markets.
此次释放石油储备是历史上规模最大的一次，市场分析人士对其影响评估较为谨慎，关注点依然聚焦于美以伊战事进展以及霍尔木兹海峡通行状况。
This release of oil reserves is the largest in history, and market analysts are cautious in assessing its impact, and their focus is still on the progress of the US-Israel-Iraq war and the traffic situation of the Strait of Hormuz.
英国AJ贝尔公司市场研究负责人丹·科茨沃思说，释放石油储备可能短期缓解市场担忧，但要完全打消市场疑虑需战事彻底结束或至少存在冲突降级的清晰路径。
Dan Cotsworth, head of market research at AJ Bell Company in the UK, said that releasing oil reserves may alleviate market worries in the short term, but to completely dispel market doubts, it requires a complete end of the war or at least a clear path to de-escalate the conflict.
英国伍德麦肯兹咨询公司分析认为，当前海湾国家石油出口总量大幅下降，释放石油储备及其他替代性来源尚无法完全填补当前供应缺口。另外，作为拥有最大规模石油储备的国际能源署成员国，美国战略石油储备处于低位，限制了其通过释放石油储备缓解市场供应缺口的空间。伍德麦肯兹董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯预计，随着战事延宕，国际油价将继续走高。
According to the analysis of Wood Mackenzie Consulting Company in the UK, the total oil exports of Gulf countries have dropped sharply at present, and the release of oil reserves and other alternative sources can't completely fill the current supply gap. In addition, as a member of the International Energy Agency with the largest oil reserves, the United States' strategic oil reserves are at a low level, which limits its space to alleviate the market supply gap by releasing oil reserves. Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst of Wood Mackenzie, expects international oil prices to continue to rise as the fighting drags on.
英国马雷克斯公司分析师萨莎·福斯说，释放石油储备确实为市场赢得时间，但关键因素依然取决于战事持续时长以及霍尔木兹海峡通行状况。
Sasha Foss, an analyst at British Marex, said that releasing oil reserves does buy time for the market, but the key factors still depend on the duration of the fighting and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz.
从历史经验来看，释放战略石油储备通常能够缓解短期市场冲击，但难以改变长期供需格局。用一句话总结，石油储备是“止痛膏”，而非“灵丹妙药”。
From historical experience, releasing strategic oil reserves can usually alleviate short-term market shocks, but it is difficult to change the long-term supply and demand pattern. To sum it up in one sentence, oil reserves are a "pain relief cream", not a "magic bullet".
2022年乌克兰危机全面升级后，国际能源署曾组织成员国实施两轮协同行动，累计释放约1.827亿桶石油储备。这一举措在短期内缓解了供应紧张预期，并在一定程度上压低了油价。不过，2022年3月，美国宣布释放大量战略石油储备，几周后国际油价再次回升。
After the full escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, the IEA organized member states to implement two rounds of coordinated actions, releasing a total of approximately 182.7 million barrels of oil reserves. The move eased expectations of tight supply in the short term and pushed down oil prices to some extent. However, in March 2022, the United States announced the release of large strategic oil reserves, and international oil prices picked up again a few weeks later.
市场普遍认为，库存释放的速度可能比总释放量更具实际意义。若一个月释放1亿桶原油，相当于每天释放约330万桶，仅占霍尔木兹海峡日常约2000万桶原油运输量的一小部分。
It is generally agreed that the rate of inventory release may be more practical than the total release. If 100 million barrels of crude oil are released in a month, it is equivalent to releasing about 3.3 million barrels per day, accounting for only a small part of the daily transportation volume of about 20 million barrels of crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz.
睿咨得能源公司分析师若热·莱昂认为，释放储备是各国对冲市场动荡的有限手段之一，只能带来“暂时”缓解，关键仍取决于霍尔木兹海峡通航情况。
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Ruizide Energy Company, believes that releasing reserves is one of the limited means for countries to hedge against market turmoil, and it can only bring "temporary" relief. The key still depends on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.
由于美国等国释放战略石油储备的计划未能平息市场对石油供应的担忧，国际油价11日晚间继续显著走高，5月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格再次突破每桶100美元关口。
As the plans of the United States and other countries to release strategic oil reserves failed to calm the market's worries about oil supply, the international oil price continued to rise significantly on the evening of 11th, and the price of London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery once again broke through the $100 per barrel mark.
