Consumption downgrade is playing out in U.S. as tariffs backfire

由于关税遭到反噬，美国正在显示消费降级态势

BEIJING, April 7 (Xinhua) -- The United States, the world's largest consumer market with unparalleled purchasing power, is now facing an emerging trend of consumption downgrade.

新华社北京4月7日电 作为全球最大消费市场，美国正显现"消费降级"态势——尽管其拥有无与伦比的购买力，这一新兴趋势已然形成。

Dollar stores across the country are teeming with shoppers as they hunt for sales and bargains. Soaring living costs have made these budget retailers more popular than ever, illustrating the pinch of inflation -- U.S. consumers are adapting, painfully, to a harsh new reality.

全美一元店挤满淘便宜货的消费者。在生活成本飙升的背景下，这些平价零售商人气空前，凸显通胀压力正迫使美国消费者痛苦地适应严酷新现实。

"We believe it doesn't matter how much money you make, everybody is hurting right now," said Michael Creedon, CEO of U.S. discount retailer Dollar Tree, in a recent earnings call. The company is "seeing stronger demand from higher-income customers" as value-seeking behavior spreads across all customer groups, he said.

美国折扣零售巨头Dollar Tree首席执行官迈克尔·克里登在最新财报电话会议中坦言："当前无论收入高低，全民皆受冲击。"其表示，随着"寻求实惠"行为向全客群蔓延，"高收入客群消费需求不降反升"。

Since taking office, the new U.S. administration has hiked tariffs on imports from major trading partners, with sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" announced Wednesday. These tariff hikes are exacerbating the financial burden on domestic consumers, who are already grappling with shrinking purchasing power and are being compelled to alter their spending habits.

本届美国政府上台后持续加征主要贸易伙伴进口关税，周三更宣布全面实施"对等关税"。此类关税措施加剧了本土消费者的财务压力——在购买力持续萎缩的困境中，民众被迫改变消费模式。

A recent survey of U.S. consumers by Numerator revealed that 80 percent of respondents are worried about how tariffs will affect their finances or shopping habits. This concern is driving behavioral changes, with 76 percent of respondents planning to change their finances or shopping behaviors in response to the new tariffs. The most popular reaction is "looking for sales or coupons to offset price increases," as per the survey.

调研机构Numerator最新民调显示，80%美国消费者担忧关税政策冲击家庭财务及消费模式。此种焦虑正引发行为模式转变——76%受访者计划调整财务决策或购物策略以应对新关税。调查指出，主流应对方式是"通过促销折扣与优惠券抵消涨价压力"。

Elaborating on how the U.S.-imposed tariffs are backfiring, Yao Weiqun, executive director of Shanghai Institute for Strategy of International Trade Center, said that one of the primary negative impacts is the rising prices of imported goods in the U.S. market.

上海国际贸易中心战略研究所执行所长姚伟群剖析美国关税反噬效应时强调，核心负面冲击在于进口商品价格全面抬升。

With the latest tariffs announced Wednesday taken into account, all tariff hikes will result in a loss of purchasing power of 3,800 U.S. dollars per household on average in 2024 dollars, according to estimates by the Budget Lab at Yale, a policy research center.

耶鲁大学预算实验室政策研究显示，计入周三新增关税后，2024年平均每户美国家庭购买力将缩水3800美元（按当年币值计算）。

"Prices of daily essentials and intermediate manufacturing goods are particularly increasing," Yao said, "which could prompt U.S. consumers to trade down to cheaper alternatives."

"日用品与工业中间品涨势尤甚，"姚伟群指出，"这将倒逼消费者降级消费。"

Similarly, various prominent American retailers have raised alarms regarding consumer spending trends as tariffs fuel inflation and strain household budgets. For instance, Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart Inc., has said that as food prices remain notably high, consumers are becoming increasingly cautious about their spending.

多家美国零售巨头同步拉响警报：通胀高企叠加关税压力，正持续挤压家庭预算空间。沃尔玛CEO董明伦(Doug McMillon)直言，面对食品价格持续高位运行，消费者已进入"精打细算模式"。

"You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone," he said, "and people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of each month."

"家庭预算月末见底现象凸显，"沃尔玛CEO指出，"消费者转向小规格包装已成月末消费新常态。"

For Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman, one of the key issues surrounding the tariffs is uncertainty. Krugman said that the "real danger" lies in the price increases, which, combined with broader economic uncertainty, could lead consumers and businesses to expect higher inflation in the future.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼强调，关税政策的核心风险在于不确定性叠加效应。他认为"真正的经济威胁"来自价格普涨——当通胀压力与经济前景不明形成共振，将触发消费者与企业端的通胀预期自我强化。

Clearly, U.S. consumers are deeply aware of the mounting uncertainties caused by the tariffs, and their concerns about the future are intensifying.

显然，美国消费者深刻意识到关税带来的不确定性不断增加，他们对未来的担忧正在加剧。

According to the University of Michigan's latest survey, U.S. consumer sentiment in March fell for the third month in a row as concerns about the economy intensified amid tariff chaos.

数据印证美国消费者对关税引发的系统性风险认知深化：密歇根大学三月调查显示，消费者信心指数连续第三个月下行。

"Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey noted, citing respondents' worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.

报告特别指出："经济政策持续波动背景下，民众对负面冲击的忧虑持续发酵"，自二月以来受访者对个人财务、商业环境、失业率及通胀的预期全面恶化。

"If you want to produce something, if you want more of something produced in the United States, a tariff, which raises costs to consumers, is a very blunt instrument," Krugman said. "And it may actually backfire because of retaliation, because it raises costs to other industries."

克鲁格曼说：“如果你想生产某种东西，如果你想在美国生产更多的东西，关税会提高消费者的成本，这是一个非常生硬的工具。”“而且实际上可能会因为报复而适得其反，因为它提高了其他行业的成本。”

As consumers cut their spending in response to economic uncertainties, U.S. retailers are feeling the pinch of the tariff hikes. The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that retail sales in February increased by only 0.2 percent from the previous month, remarkably lower than the 0.7 percent growth projected by economists.

随着消费者为应对经济不确定性而削减支出，美国零售商感受到了关税上调的压力。来自美国的最新数据。美国商务部显示，2月份零售额环比仅增长0.2%，明显低于经济学家预测的0.7%。

Multiple industry leaders have expressed concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on the supply chain, which connects consumers, vendors and retailers. "International trade is critically important to our business and industry," said Corie Barry, CEO of consumer electronics giant Best Buy. "The consumer electronics supply chain is highly global, technical and complex. China and Mexico remain the No. 1 and No. 2 sources for products we sell, respectively."

多个行业领导者对关税对连接消费者、供应商和零售商的供应链的影响表示担忧。“国际贸易对我们的商业和行业至关重要，”消费电子巨头百思买首席执行官科里·巴里(Corie Barry)表示。“消费电子供应链是高度全球化、技术性和复杂性的。中国和墨西哥仍然分别是我们销售产品的第一和第二大来源。”

Barry expects that vendors across Best Buy's entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, "making price increases for American consumers highly likely."

巴里预计，百思买整个品类的供应商将把一定程度的关税成本转嫁给零售商，“这使得美国消费者很有可能涨价”。

The ripple effects are becoming increasingly evident. Rising prices and economic uncertainty are eroding consumer confidence, leading to a decline in spending, a crucial driver of economic growth. This in turn fuels fears that the U.S. economy is decelerating and potentially sliding into a recession.

连锁反应越来越明显。物价上涨和经济不确定性正在侵蚀消费者信心，导致支出下降，而支出是经济增长的关键驱动力。这反过来又加剧了人们对美国经济正在减速并可能陷入衰退的担忧。

The Budget Lab on Wednesday forecasted the country's real GDP growth to be 0.9 percentage points lower this year and the economy to be persistently 0.6 percent smaller in the long run, with all the 2025 U.S. tariffs and retaliation implemented to date accounted for.

预算实验室周三预测，考虑到美国迄今为止实施的2025年关税和报复措施，该国今年的实际GDP增长将下降0.9个百分点，从长远来看，经济将持续萎缩0.6%。

Addressing the tariffs' disruptive effects, Mohamed Moutii, a research associate with the Arab Center for Research, said that "tariffs do not protect American industries -- they weaken them." "They inflate prices, stifle competition, and erode international trade relationships."

阿拉伯研究中心研究员穆罕默德·穆蒂在谈到关税的破坏性影响时表示，“关税并不能保护美国工业，反而会削弱它们。”“它们抬高价格，扼杀竞争，侵蚀国际贸易关系。”

"The path to sustainable growth and enduring prosperity lies in openness, not economic isolation. Free trade has delivered immense benefits in the past, and it remains the strongest foundation for a more dynamic and interconnected global economy," he added.

“通往可持续增长和持久繁荣的道路在于开放，而不是经济孤立。自由贸易在过去带来了巨大的好处，它仍然是更具活力和相互联系的全球经济的最坚实基础，”他补充道。