Explainer: Q&A on Chinese economy: Sustaining growth and tackling challenges
解说：中国经济问答：持续增长、应对挑战
BEIJING, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese economy has experienced an uneven yet resilient growth trajectory in 2024, with a strong start followed by increasing downward pressure around mid-year and a subsequent upswing in the final quarter.
新华社北京12月11日电——2024年中国经济增长走势具有不平衡性和波动性，开局强劲，年中左右下行压力加大，最后一个季度回升。
As the year draws to a close, and with an uncertain 2025 right around the corner, China's economic outlook and policies have garnered global attention. The following Q&A offers a glimpse into the country's efforts to sustain growth and resolve issues in fields ranging from local government debt to the real estate market.
随着年底接近，充满未知的2025年即将到来，中国的经济前景和政策受到了全球的关注。下面的问答让我们一窥中国为维持增长和解决从地方政府债务到房地产市场等领域的问题所做的努力。
WILL CHINA ACHIEVE ITS ANNUAL GROWTH TARGET?
中国会实现年度增长目标吗？
China's economic growth remained steady in the first three quarters of 2024, with GDP up 5.3 percent, 4.7 percent and 4.6 percent year on year, respectively. Despite fluctuations, the figures have remained within the targeted range. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy has reported expansion for nine consecutive quarters.
2024年前三季度中国经济增长保持平稳，GDP历年同比分别增长5.3%、4.7%和4.6%。尽管有所波动，但这些数字仍保持在目标范围内。环比来看，经济已连续九个月持续提升。
The stable performance proves that China has managed to navigate a challenging situation this year, withstanding global economic headwinds and pressures from domestic structural problems.
中国稳定的形势证明我们已成功应对今年充满挑战的形势，抵御全球经济逆风和国内结构性问题的压力。
Experts believe that there has been a solid foundation for the economy to meet the full-year growth target of around 5 percent.
专家认为，全年经济5%左右的增长目标已经有了坚实基础。
China has responded to emerging economic challenges with timely macroeconomic policies this year. In particular, the government has rolled out a series of incremental measures since September, including increasing local government debt quotas to replace hidden debt, easing real-estate regulations, directing long-term capital into the market, and increasing support for struggling businesses.
中国今年以适时的宏观经济政策应对新出现的经济挑战。特别是，自9月份以来，政府推出了一系列增量措施，包括增加地方政府债务配额以替代隐性债务、放松房地产监管、引导长期资本进入市场以及加大对陷入困境的企业的支持。
The policies have begun to bear fruit. In the fourth quarter, consumer demand has picked up, the stock and real-estate markets have become more active, and business expectations have also improved.
政策已初见成效。第四季度，消费需求有所回升，股票和房地产市场更加活跃，企业预期也有所改善。
The main goals and tasks for economic and social development in 2024 will be successfully accomplished, according to a crucial meeting convened on Monday by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee.
中共中央政治局周一召开重要会议，2024年经济社会发展主要目标和任务将圆满完成。
Globally, China's growth rate continued to take the lead. In the third quarter, the United States saw a 2.8 percent year-on-year increase, while the Eurozone grew by 0.9 percent.
在全球范围内，中国增速继续领跑。第三季度，美国年同比增长2.8%，欧元区同比增长0.9%。
China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, according to Bloomberg calculations using IMF forecasts.
根据彭博社使用国际货币基金组织的计算，预测中国将是未来五年全球增长的最大贡献者。
IS CHINESE CONSUMPTION FACING A CRISIS?
中国消费是否面临危机？
There have been concerns over China's consumption momentum this year. However, the country, while indeed facing insufficient domestic demand, remains one of the world's largest consumer markets and still boasts enormous potential.
人们对今年中国的消费势头感到担忧。然而，尽管中国确实面临内需不足的问题，但仍然是世界上最大的消费市场之一，仍然拥有巨大的潜力。
A McKinsey report recently denied any consumption crisis in China, noting that "domestic consumption, though modest, is growing" and sectors including services and tourism are experiencing robust growth.
麦肯锡最近的一份报告认为中国不存在任何消费危机，指出“国内消费情况虽然温和，但正在增长”，服务业和旅游业等行业增长现在还很强劲。
"The transition from an export- and investment-led growth model to one based on domestic consumption and innovation amounts to a fundamental structural transformation," Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence wrote in a signed article.
诺贝尔奖得主经济学家迈克尔·斯宾塞在一篇署名文章中写道：“从出口和投资主导的增长模式向基于国内消费和创新的增长模式转变，相当于在根本上的一次结构性转型。”
In the first 10 months of this year, the country's retail sales approached 40 trillion yuan (5.57 trillion U.S. dollars), and the figure exceeded 47 trillion yuan in 2023.
今年前10个月，全国零售额接近40万亿元人民币（5.57万亿美元），2023年量额超过47万亿元人民币。
A national program aimed at promoting consumer goods trade-ins demonstrated the untapped room of China's domestic demand. Over 30 million participants have been attracted to the program unveiled in March, contributing total sales of more than 400 billion yuan.
一项旨在促进消费品以旧换新的国家计划展示了中国内需尚未开发的空间。三月份推出的计划吸引了超过3000万参与者，贡献了超过4000亿元的总销售额。
More encouraging signs emerged in October, with the highest year-on-year growth in retail sales since March, a rebound in home transactions in eight months and a turnaround in consumer confidence after a six-month decline, as well as a 150-percent surge in stock-market turnover.
10月份出现了更多令人鼓舞的迹象，自3月份以来零售额的同比增长最高，自八个月以来房屋交易出现反弹，在经历了六个月的下降后消费者又燃起信心，股市成交量飙升了150%。
Multiple institutions attribute recent improvements in the economy to stronger domestic demand. Experts believe that with a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle class, China's consumption potential remains substantial.
因内需走强，多家机构将近期经济好转。专家认为，中国人口超过14亿，中产阶级不断壮大，消费潜力依然巨大。
HAS CHINA'S REAL ESTATE MARKET BOTTOMED OUT?
中国房地产市场触底了吗？
The Chinese authorities have introduced a series of measures to stabilize the real estate market this year, with loosened restrictions and stronger credit support.
中国当局今年限制放松，信贷支持力度加大，出台了一系列稳定房地产市场的措施。
Various indicators suggest that the move has begun to achieve positive effects. According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, transactions of new and second-hand homes nationwide reversed eight consecutive months of decline in October. The business activity and market expectations reflected in the purchasing managers' index for the sector rose steadily in October from the previous month.
种种迹象表明，此举已经开始产生积极效果。据住建部消息，10月份全国新房和二手房成交扭转了连续8个月的下滑态势。10月份该行业采购经理指数反映的业务活动和市场预期环比稳步上升。
After three years of adjustment, "the real estate market is starting to bottom out as the policies take effect," the ministry said. "The positive changes in October suggest that as policy impacts continue to unfold, the momentum for market stabilization will strengthen," said the National Bureau of Statistics.
经过三年的调整后，该部门表示：“随着政策的生效，房地产市场开始触底，“10月份的积极变化表明，随着政策影响持续扩大，市场企稳势头将增强，”国家统计局表示。
While the market stabilization indicates policy effectiveness, more work should be done to promote the sustainable development of the property sector.
在市场企稳表明政策有效的同时，促进房地产行业可持续发展还需做更多工作。
In the longer term, there is still room for growth in meeting rigid and upgraded housing demand, analysts said. As China progresses through the later stages of urbanization, the continued promotion of people-centered urbanization is expected to unlock further potential in the real estate market.
分析师表示，从长期来看，在满足刚性和升级住房需求方面仍有增长空间。随着中国进入城镇化后期阶段，持续推进以人为核心的城镇化有望进一步释放房地产市场潜力。
IS CHINA'S DEBT RELIEF PLAN SUFFICIENT?
中国的债务减免计划是否充分？
Last month, China unveiled a 12-trillion-yuan policy package to tackle the growing risk in hidden debt among local governments, an issue that has received considerable global attention.
上个月，中国推出了12万亿元人民币的一揽子政策，以应对全球关注的日益增长的地方政府隐性债务风险。
The total hidden debt that needs to be addressed by the end of 2028 will be cut from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan, significantly mitigating the potential risk and making local debt management more orderly and transparent.
到2028年底，显著缓解潜在风险，地方债务管理更加有序透明。需要解决的隐性债务总额将从14.3万亿元削减至2.3万亿元。
The policy is seen as a timely boost for local governments, which are projected to save around 600 billion yuan in interest payments over the next five years. With more than 80 percent of national fiscal spending coming from local governments, alleviating their debt burden will free up more resources to support economic growth, public services and social welfare.
该政策可以说是对地方政府的及时提振，预计未来五年地方政府将节省约6000亿元人民币的利息支出。国家财政支出的80%以上来自地方政府，减轻地方政府债务负担将释放更多资源支持经济增长、公共服务和社会福利。
China's government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 67.5 percent at the end of 2023, compared to the average 118.2 percent among G20 nations and 123.4 percent for G7. The country's fiscal deficit has long been below 3 percent, significantly lower than other major economies around the world.
截至2023年底，中国政府债务与GDP之比为67.5%，而G20国家的平均水平为118.2%，G7国家的平均水平为123.4%。我国的财政赤字长期低于3%，明显低于全球其他主要经济体。
With a low government leverage ratio, China's central budget has room for increased borrowing and deficit expansion, experts said.
专家表示，由于政府杠杆率较低，中国中央预算有增加借贷和扩大赤字的空间。
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Monday pledged to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy next year. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an has said that the ministry will increase special bonds, continue the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds, step up support for equipment and consumer goods renewals, and expand central transfers to local governments.
周一召开的中共中央政治局会议承诺明年将采取更加积极的财政政策。财政部部长蓝佛安曾表示，财政部将增加专项债券，继续发行超长特别国债，加大对设备和消费品更新的支持力度，扩大中央对地方转移支付。
HAS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE ECONOMY WEAKENED?
经济金融支持力度减弱了吗？
China's credit expansion has slowed this year, with yuan loans growing at single-digit rates and the broad money supply (M2) reaching a historic-low growth rate. It has sparked concerns regarding whether financial support for the economy has weakened.
今年人民币贷款增速为个位数，广义货币供应量（M2）增速创历史新低，中国信贷扩张放缓。因此人们担忧经济金融支撑力度是否减弱了。
In fact, China has stepped up counter-cyclical adjustment and adhered to a supportive monetary policy in the face of downward pressure to create a sound financial environment for economic recovery.
事实上，中国加大逆周期调节力度，面对下行压力坚持支持货币政策，为经济复苏营造良好金融环境。
The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, has this year cut the reserve requirement ratio by 1 percentage point in total for financial institutions, releasing approximately 2 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has dropped a cumulative 35 basis points, with the over-five-year LPR down by 60 basis points.
央行中国人民银行（PBOC）今年已累计对金融机构降准1个百分点，释放长期流动性约2万亿元。一年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）累计下降35个基点，其中五年期以上LPR下降60个基点。
Thanks to the measures, the financing costs have dropped for both enterprises and individuals, and credit demand has been effectively stimulated. In the first three quarters of the year, major financial institutions issued over 110 trillion yuan in loans, representing an increase of nearly 8 trillion yuan compared to the same period in 2023 and 20 trillion yuan compared to 2022.
得益于措施，无论是企业还是个人，融资成本都有所下降，信贷需求得到有效刺激。前三季度，主要金融机构发放贷款超110万亿元，较2023年同期增加近8万亿元，较2022年增加20万亿元。
Since September, financial authorities have introduced a range of measures to address new challenges, such as insufficient demand and weakened expectations, with significant cuts in the interest rates for existing home mortgages and the creation of new financing tools for the capital market.
自9月以来，金融当局推出了一系列措施来应对需求不足和预期转弱等新挑战，包括大幅下调存量住房抵押贷款利率和为资本市场创造新的融资工具。
Looking forward, China's monetary policy stance is still closely watched by global experts and investors. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Monday pledged to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy next year, marking the first "prudent" to "moderately loose" transition in the country's monetary stance since 2011.
展望未来，中国的货币政策立场仍受到全球专家和投资者的密切关注。中共中央政治局周一会议承诺明年将采取适度宽松的货币政策，标志着中国货币立场自2011年以来首次从“稳健”转向“适度宽松”。
The central bank will utilize a variety of monetary policy tools and increase countercyclical regulation to maintain reasonable and ample liquidity, and to reduce the overall financing costs for enterprises and residents, PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng said earlier this month.
中国人民银行行长潘功胜本月早些时候表示，央行将利用多种货币政策工具，加大逆周期调控力度，保持流动性合理充裕，降低企业和居民的总体融资成本。
Efforts will be made to effectively leverage structural monetary policy tools to promote the stable development of the real-estate market and capital market, Pan said.
潘说，将努力有效利用结构性货币政策工具，促进房地产市场和资本市场稳定发展。
