欧美丁二烯将继续出口亚洲

European and American butadiene will continue to be exported to Asia

近日有市场消息人士表示，受下游需求疲软、裂解装置整合、关税政策调整及市场复苏预期低迷等多重因素影响，2026年全球丁二烯市场将持续承压。在这种大环境下，尽管亚洲地区近年积极推进丁二烯自给自足，但该地区短期内仍将持续进口欧美丁二烯，净进口格局预计延续至2030年左右方能扭转。

Recently, market sources said that the global butadiene market will continue to be under pressure in 2026 due to multiple factors such as weak downstream demand, integration of crackers, tariff policy adjustments, and sluggish market recovery expectations. In this general environment, although Asia has actively promoted butadiene self-sufficiency in recent years, the region will continue to import butadiene from Europe and the United States in the short term, and the net import pattern is expected to continue until around 2030 before being reversed.

价格走势方面，2025年全球丁二烯价格整体下行。据标普全球能源普氏资讯数据，全年中国到岸价、美国墨西哥湾沿岸到岸价及鹿特丹离岸价均下跌470~530美元/吨;美国月度合同价累计下跌19.75美分/磅，当前合约实际成交价常低于初始结算价。若亚洲市场价格持续下行影响合约谈判，不排除跌破生产成本的可能。此轮价格走低核心源于供需失衡：一方面，宏观经济低迷严重冲击汽车、建筑等丁二烯下游核心消费领域，导致欧美本土消费量下滑；另一方面，亚洲市场曾存在的价格溢价使其成为欧美丁二烯稳定出口目的地，欧美出口力度加大进一步加剧全球供应过剩。

In terms of price trends, global butadiene prices will decline overall in 2025. According to S&P Global Energy Platts data, the CIF price of China, the CIF price of the U.S. Gulf Coast and the FOB price of Rotterdam all fell by 470 ~ 530 USD/ton throughout the year; The monthly contract price in the United States has fallen by 19.75 cents/pound, and the actual transaction price of the current contract is often lower than the initial settlement price. If prices in the Asian market continue to decline and affect contract negotiations, the possibility of falling below production costs cannot be ruled out. The core of this round of price declines is due to the imbalance between supply and demand: on the one hand, the macroeconomic downturn has severely impacted the core downstream consumption areas of butadiene such as automobiles and construction, resulting in a decline in domestic consumption in Europe and the United States; On the other hand, the price premium that once existed in the Asian market has made it a stable export destination for butadiene from Europe and the United States, and the increase in exports from Europe and the United States has further exacerbated the global oversupply.

不过，市场人士也指出，亚洲对欧美丁二烯的进口窗口正逐步收紧。2025年年初以来，欧美与亚洲丁二烯价差收窄，欧美对亚洲供应量已出现下滑。赫尔宾预计，2026年欧美本土丁二烯需求依旧疲软，直至2030年才有望小幅回升。市场低迷叠加出口收益缩水，迫使企业采取更激进的去库存措施。欧洲方面，2025年南欧、西北欧已有4套蒸汽裂解装置永久关停，2026年仍将有两套装置关停，后续新投产装置将采用乙烷替代石脑油为原料，这一调整将降低粗C4产出占比，助力缓解丁二烯供应过剩。美国市场则受亚洲价格压力显著，共裂解工艺成为生产商控制供应量的热门选择。

However, market participants also pointed out that Asia's import window for European and American butadiene is gradually tightening. Since the beginning of 2025, the price difference of butadiene between Europe, the United States and Asia has narrowed, and the supply from Europe and the United States to Asia has declined. Herbing predicts that domestic butadiene demand in Europe and the United States will remain weak in 2026 and is not expected to rebound slightly until 2030. The market downturn and shrinking export earnings have forced enterprises to take more radical destocking measures. In Europe, four sets of steam cracking units in southern and northwest Europe have been permanently shut down in 2025, and two units will still be shut down in 2026. Subsequent new units will use ethane instead of naphtha as raw material. This adjustment will reduce The proportion of crude C4 output helps alleviate the oversupply of butadiene. The U.S. market is under significant price pressure from Asia, and the co-cracking process has become a popular choice for manufacturers to control supply.