全球原油市场或“亮红灯”
The Global crude oil market may be flashing a "red light"
近日，分析人士指出，石油期货市场可能严重低估了霍尔木兹海峡关闭给全球实物原油和燃料供应带来的巨大冲击。随着中东冲突继续，这条全球约20%石油出口必经的咽喉要道受阻，已迫使海湾产油国削减产量约1000万桶/日，并导致部分炼油能力关停，现货原油市场正释放供应紧张的强烈信号。
Recently, analysts have pointed out that the oil futures market may have seriously underestimated the huge impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the global supply of physical crude oil and fuels. As the Middle East conflict countries, this choke point, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil exports must pass, has become blocked. This has forced oil-producing countries in the Gulf to cut output by about by about 10 million barrels per day, leading to the shutdown of some refineries. The spot crude oil market is sending a strong signal of tight supply.
期货与现货价格严重背离
Serious divergence between futures and spot prices.
3月10日，布伦特原油期货价格一度飙升至119美元/桶，随后因国际能源署投放原油储备而回落至100美元以下，随后又因为战事绵延再次提升。截至3月20日收盘，布伦特原油期货价格为104.31美元/桶。相对于波谲云诡的局势，因为有各种市场信息对冲，布伦特原油期货价格的涨跌还算温和。
On March 10, Brent crude oil futures prices once soared to ＄119 per barrel, then fell below＄100 per barrel following the release of crude oil reserves by the International Energy Agency(IEA), and later rose again due to the prolonged conflict. By the close of trading on March20, Brent crude oil futures stood at＄104.31 per barrel. Against the volatile backdrop, the fluctuations in Brent crude oil futures prices remained relatively moderate, thanks to the offsetting effects of various market signals.
相比之下，实物原油市场的情况完全不同。据路透专栏作家Clyde
In contrast, the situation in the physical crude oil market is completely different. According to Clyde, a Reuters columnist.
Russell汇编的数据，实物迪拜原油较其迪拜期货合约的溢价已飙升至38美元/桶。期货市场交易者有各种市场信息带来的心理缓冲，但实物市场的剧烈反应表明，原油供应正面临直接中断，买家正承受巨大的货源压力。
Date complied by Russell, the premium of physical Dubai crudeto its Dubai futures contracts has soared to ＄barrel. Traders in the futures market have a psychological buffer from various market information, but the sharp reaction in the physical market indicates that crude oil supply is facing immediate disruption, and buyers are under huge pressure on supply sources.
在现货市场，随着霍尔木兹海峡自2月28日冲突升级以来持续受阻，全球约20%石油供应中断。一家欧洲贸易商表示，目前寻找替代货源几乎不可能，中东原油出口停滞的冲击正在全球范围内传导。
In the spot market, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked since the escalation of conflicts on February 28,about 20%of the world's oil supply has been disrupted. A European Trader stated that it is almost impossible to find alternative supply sources at present, and the impact of the stagnation of Middle East crude oil exports is spreading globally.
储备释放远水难解近渴
Reserve releases: a distant solution to an urgent supply crisis.
国际能源署(IEA)在当地时间3月11日宣布史上最大规模的4亿桶协调储备释放。但同时，IEA也警告称，中东冲突正造成石油市场史上最大的供应中断。ING大宗商品策略师3月13日指出，作为IEA行动的一部分，美国的储备释放需约120天完成，按类似时间线推算，其他成员国合计释放约330万桶/日，远低于波斯湾地区的供应损失量。IEA执行董事法提赫·比罗尔坦言，这是该机构成立50年来面临的最严峻考验。
The international Energy Agency(IEA) announced the largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves on March 11 local time. At the same time, however, the IEA warned that the Middle East conflict is causing the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. An ING commodity strategist noted on March 13 that as part of the IEA's acction, the US reserve release will take about 120 days to complete. Based on a similar timeline, releases from other member countries will total around 3.3million barrels per day, which is far below the supply loss from the Persian Gulf rigion. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, stated frankly that is the most severe test the agency has faced in its 50-year history.
IEA在发布的月度石油市场报告中表示，由于绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代通道有限且库存持续累积，海湾产油国已合计减产至少1000万桶/日。沙特东西管道虽已满负荷运行，但700万桶/日的输送能力中仅约500万桶可供出口，其余供国内炼厂使用。此外，超过300万桶/日的海湾地区炼油能力已因袭击和缺乏可行出口通道而关停。IEA警告，其他地区炼厂将因原料可用性而日益受限，全球炼油体系正面临前所未有的原料短缺压力。
In its monthly oil market report, the IEA stated that due to limited alternative routes to bypss the Strait of Hormuz and the continued accumulation of inventories, Gulf oil-producing countries have collectively cut production by at least 10 milion barrels per day. Although Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline is running at full capacity,only 5 million barrels per day of its 7-million-barrel-per-day capacity can be reported, with the remaining volume being used by domestic refineeries. In addition, more than 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Gulf region has been shut down due to attacks and the lack of vuable export channels. The IEA warned that refineries in other regions will face growing constraints on feedstock availability, and the global refining system is under unprecedented pressure of feedstock shortages.
美国财政部3月13日宣布，允许至4月11日止购买被困于浮仓的俄罗斯原油。目前约有4000万桶俄罗斯原油漂浮海上待售，这些原油相对于亚洲的巨大需求来说仍不能解渴。市场人士预计，亚洲炼厂4月的订单将难以满足，预计全区域加工量将削减10%~15%，并将动用通常可维持15天的缓冲库存。若冲突持续至5月，大多数国家将被迫动用战略储备，届时全球能源安全格局将面临重新洗牌。
The U.S. Treasury Department announced on March 13 that it would allow purchases of Russian crude oil trapped in floating storage until April11. There are currently about 40 million barrels of Russian crude floating at sea waiting to be sold, which is still far from meeting the huge demand in Asia. Market participants predict that Asian refineries will struggle to fulfill their orders in April, with regional processing volumes expected to drop by10% to 15%, forcing them to draw down buffer inventories that normally last 15 days.If the conflict continues into May, most countries will be forced to tap into their strategic petroleum reserves, triggering a reshuffle of the global energy security landscape.
200美元油价并非天方夜谭
A ＄200 oil price is not a fantasy
数据显示，2月中东日均石油及成品油出口量，Kpler统计为2513万桶，Vortexa统计为2610万桶；但到3月中旬，两者分别暴跌至971万桶和750万桶，降幅近三分之二。比出口骤降更严峻的是生产停摆。中东主要产油国因储油空间饱和纷纷减产，且油井关停后重启周期漫长。伊拉克日均减产290万桶、沙特200万~250万桶、阿联酋150万桶、科威特130万桶，合计减产超700万桶/日。而从市场来看，当前实物原油短缺、供应紧张推高油价，即便局势缓和，油价回落也会缓慢。
According to data, the Middle East's average daily exports of crude oil and refined products in February were 25.13million barrels per day according to Vortexa. By mid-March, however, these figures had plummeted to 9.71 million bpd and 7.50 million bpd respectively, a drop of nearly two-thirds. Even more severe than the collapse in exports is the halt in production. According to the data, in February, the average daily oil and refined oil export volume in the Middle East was 25.13 million barrels by Kpler and 26.1 million barrels by Vortexa; But by mid-March, the two had plunged to 9.71 million barrels and 7.5 million barrels, respectively, down nearly two-thirds. More severe than the plunge in exports is the shutdown of production. Major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have cut output one after another due to saturated storage capacity,and the restart cycle for shut-in oil wells is lengthy. Iraq has cut production by 2.9 million bpd, Saudi Arabia by 2.0-2.5 million bpd, the UAE by 1.5 million bpd, and Kuwait by 1.3million bpd, totaling over 7 million bpd in combined cuts. From a market perspective, the current shortage of physical crude oil and tight supply are driving up prices, and even if the situation eases,oil prices will decline only slowly.
在此背景下，Onyx资本首席执行官纽曼称，中东实物油价已破150美元/桶，布伦特原油期货看涨至200美元/桶是合理的。朗维尤经济首席策略师沃特林则认为，供应短缺下油价触及200甚至250美元/桶不足为奇。伍德麦肯兹分析师表示，布伦特原油未来数周可能飙升至150美元/桶。与2022年2月俄乌冲突时不同，当时供应仍在流动，只是需重新定向至中印，而此次面临风险的供应规模更大且真实存在。高盛、摩根士丹利等投行同样相继上调油价预期，认为若海峡封锁持续两个月以上，油价突破200美元将是大概率事件。
Against this backdrop,Newman.CEO of Onyx Capital, stated that physical oil prices in the Middle East have already hit ＄150 per barrel,and it is reasonable to expect Brent crude futures to rise to ＄200 per barrel. Vortexa's chief strategist Wattlin believes that under supply shortages,it would not be surprising to see oil prices touch ＄200 or even ＄250 per barrel.Analysts at Wood Mackenzie noted that Brent crude oil could surge to ＄150 per barrel in the coming weeks. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022,when supply was still flowing and only needed to be redirected to China and India,the scale of supply at risk this time is much larger and the threat is real.Banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also successively raised their oil price forecasts,stating that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for more than two month,oil prices breaking ＄200 per barrel will be a high-probability event.
也有分析师预计3月底后油价回落，但这依赖冲突快速结束，而目前并无相关信号。路透专栏指出，即便冲突停止，供应缺口也难快速填补，停产产能修复需数月，油价难回冲突前水平。
Some analysts also expect oil prices to fall after the end of March,but this depends on a rapid end to the conflict,and there is currently no signal to support this.A Reuters column pointed out that even if the conflict stops,the supply gap cannot be filled quickly.It will take several months to restore shut-in production capacity,and it will be difficult for oil prices to return to Pre-conflict levels.
