多家国际机构预判美国经济衰退，惠誉建议美联储继续“袖手旁观”

Several international institutions predict a recession in the US economy. Fitch suggests that the Federal Reserve continue to stand idly by

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，美国阿波罗全球管理公司明确列出了美国经济衰退“四步走”的时间表：5月上旬至中旬，美国港口集装箱船进港逐渐停止；5月中下旬，卡车货运需求逐渐停止，商店出现空货架，企业销售额下降；5月底至6月初，卡车货运和零售业裁员；夏季，经济衰退。

Global Times Finance Comprehensive Report: Recently, Apollo Global Management Company of the United States clearly listed a four-step timetable for the US economic recession: From early to mid-May, the entry of container ships into US ports will gradually stop; In the middle and late May, the demand for truck freight gradually stopped, empty shelves appeared in stores, and the sales of enterprises declined. From the end of May to the beginning of June, there were layoffs in trucking and retail. In summer, there is an economic recession

但Principal资产管理公司首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示：“我们可以将对经济衰退的担忧再推迟一个月”，并详细分析认为，经济疲软可能在几个月内不会真正体现在数据中，这反过来又会将美联储的下一次降息时点推至第三季度；经济将在未来几个月疲软，但凭借现在这种潜在的势头，如果美国能够及时从关税边缘退下来，就有可能避免经济衰退。

But Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said: "We could postpone concerns about a recession for another month and analyze in detail that the economic weakness might not really be reflected in the data for several months, which in turn would push the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve until the third quarter." The economy will be weak in the coming months, but with the current potential momentum, if the United States can step back from the brink of tariffs in time, it is possible to avoid an economic recession

惠誉也在北京时间5月3日凌晨最新表态，从本周的整体数据中得出的关键信息是，美国经济在4月的第一周基本面强劲，但前景仍然非常不确定，并建议美联储将继续袖手旁观，直到劳动力市场出现真正的疲软。

Fitch also made its latest statement at 3 a.m. Beijing time on May 3rd. The key message drawn from the overall data of this week is that the fundamentals of the US economy were strong in the first week of April, but the outlook remains highly uncertain. It also suggested that the Federal Reserve will continue to stand idly by until there is a real weakness in the labor market