全球化工行业脱碳陷入两难

Global chemical industry faces a dilemma in decarbonization

全球化工行业脱碳正面临两难境地：贸易动荡与市场持续低迷迫使企业压缩资本开支，而实现2030年减排目标、迈向2050年净零排放，又急需巨额投资支撑技术升级与设施改造，市场支付意愿的区域差异与行业资本紧缩形成尖锐对立。

The decarbonization of the global chemical industry is facing a dilemma: trade turbulence and sustained market downturn are forcing companies to reduce capital expenditures, while achieving the 2030 emission reduction target and moving towards net zero emissions by 2050 urgently requires massive investment to support technological upgrades and facility upgrades. The regional differences in market willingness to pay and the industry's capital tightening form a sharp opposition.

脱碳投资遇现金流“寒冬”

Decarbonization investment encounters cash flow 'winter'

当前化工行业脱碳进程已明显滞后。世界经济论坛数据显示，2019至2023年化工行业绝对排放量增长6%，排放强度稳定在130万吨二氧化碳当量；而据国际能源署(IEA)测算，2030年前需将排放强度降至92万吨二氧化碳当量，且在2050年行业规模增长70%的前提下，需削减85%年排放量。普华永道预估，至2050年相关投资需达1.5万亿至3.3万亿美元。

The decarbonization process in the current chemical industry has significantly lagged behind. According to data from the World Economic Forum, the absolute emissions of the chemical industry will increase by 6% from 2019 to 2023, and the emission intensity will remain stable at 1.3 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the emission intensity needs to be reduced to 920000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, and 85% of annual emissions need to be reduced on the premise of a 70% increase in industry scale by 2050. PwC estimates that related investments will reach $1.5 trillion to $3.3 trillion by 2050.

但企业投入却显得捉襟见肘。一方面，美国化学理事会(ACC)190余家成员企业累计投入127亿美元用于可持续工艺，2017年以来排放强度下降14%；巴斯夫等企业也明确生物基原料、碳捕集等关键技术方向。这些成绩似乎还不错，但考虑到目前的行业下行周期，企业能否维持现在的投资都还存疑。

vBut enterprise investment seems to be struggling. On the one hand, over 190 member companies of the American Chemical Council (ACC) have invested a total of $12.7 billion in sustainable processes, resulting in a 14% decrease in emission intensity since 2017; BASF and other companies have also identified key technological directions such as bio based raw materials and carbon capture. These achievements seem decent, but considering the current industry downturn, it is still uncertain whether companies can maintain their current investments.

目前，全球化工行业正经历持续下行周期，欧洲裂解装置产能调整与特朗普政府关税政策加剧不确定性，巴斯夫、陶氏化学等龙头企业纷纷启动成本管控，收紧资本支出。ACC数据显示，高利率、关税壁垒与地缘风险叠加，导致美国化工资本支出增速持续放缓：2024年增长3.9%至390亿美元，2025年预计降低1.6%，2026年仅回升至2.5%。

At present, the global chemical industry is experiencing a continuous downward cycle, with production capacity adjustments in European cracking units and increased uncertainty from the Trump administration's tariff policies. Leading companies such as BASF and Dow Chemical have started cost control and tightened capital expenditures. ACC data shows that the combination of high interest rates, tariff barriers, and geopolitical risks has led to a sustained slowdown in the growth rate of US chemical capital expenditures: increasing by 3.9% to $39 billion in 2024, expected to decrease by 1.6% in 2025, and only recovering to 2.5% in 2026.

即便巴斯夫、陶氏等承诺每年投入超10亿美元用于可持续发展，但经济疲软仍挤压脱碳投资空间。ACC可持续发展副总裁米切尔·图米指出，地缘政治复杂化与消费需求迭代使投资决策更趋谨慎，但扩产与减排并非对立，新建设施效率远高于老旧设备，且当前技术与可再生能源基础已实现跨越式发展，“效率提升型减排项目”可同时降低运营成本，成为行业破局的重要路径。

Despite commitments from companies such as BASF and Dow to invest over $1 billion annually in sustainable development, economic weakness still squeezes decarbonization investment space. Mitchell Tumi, Vice President of Sustainable Development at ACC, pointed out that the complexity of geopolitics and the iteration of consumer demand have made investment decisions more cautious, but expansion and emissions reduction are not contradictory. New construction facilities are much more efficient than old equipment, and the current technology and renewable energy foundation have achieved leapfrog development. "Efficiency enhancing emission reduction projects" can simultaneously reduce operating costs and become an important path for the industry to break through.

资金断流与技术滞后双重桎梏

The dual constraints of funding interruption and technological lag

可持续预算缩减、政策激励取消与技术成熟度不足，共同导致净零项目大面积停滞，最典型的是陶氏化学搁置加拿大艾伯塔省65亿美元“零碳路径”裂解装置项目。该项目原计划2027年投产，可年产320万吨净零排放聚乙烯，成为全球首个直接和间接碳排放净零的乙烯联合装置。但受行业下行、建造成本上涨与关税不确定性影响，2025年4月该项目陷入无限期停滞。

Sustainable budget cuts, cancellation of policy incentives, and insufficient technological maturity have collectively led to widespread stagnation of net zero projects, most notably Dow Chemical's $6.5 billion "zero carbon pathway" cracking plant project in Alberta, Canada. The project was originally planned to be put into operation in 2027, with an annual production capacity of 3.2 million tons of net zero emission polyethylene, becoming the world's first direct and indirect net zero carbon emission ethylene joint plant. However, due to industry downturn, rising construction costs, and tariff uncertainty, the project will come to an indefinite halt in April 2025.

政策缺位加剧困境：2025年夏季美国能源部取消37亿美元减排资助，涉及埃克森美孚氢能燃烧器、伊士曼化学分子回收等关键项目。技术层面，巴斯夫坦言电加热裂解炉等核心脱碳技术需2030年后才能规模化应用，其与沙特基础工业、林德集团联合开发的全球首套电加热裂解炉示范工厂，2025年4月才在德国路德维希港投产。

Policy gaps exacerbate difficulties: In the summer of 2025, the US Department of Energy will cancel $3.7 billion in emission reduction funding, involving key projects such as ExxonMobil hydrogen burners and Eastman chemical molecule recycling. On a technical level, BASF admits that core decarbonization technologies such as electric heating cracking furnaces will only be applied on a large scale after 2030. The world's first electric heating cracking furnace demonstration plant, jointly developed with Saudi Basic Industries and Linde Group, will only be put into operation in Ludwigshafen, Germany in April 2025.

价值链减排遇“核算盲区”

Value chain emission reduction encounters' accounting blind spots'

政策稳定性缺失与范围3排放(即产业链排放)管控难题，成为脱碳进程的最大制度障碍。陶氏可持续发展负责人安德烈·阿真顿直言，“稳定可预测的政策环境是行业行动的前提”，但当前存在多重政策矛盾：美国SEC 2024年气候披露规则未纳入占行业总排放75%的范围3排放；2025年9月EPA更提议中止大型设施与能源供应商的温室气体报告义务，碳捕集领域警告此举将导致775亿美元投资搁浅。

The lack of policy stability and the difficulty of controlling emissions (i.e. industrial chain emissions) have become the biggest institutional obstacles to the decarbonization process. Andrew Azhenton, the head of sustainable development at Dow, bluntly stated that "a stable and predictable policy environment is a prerequisite for industry action," but there are currently multiple policy contradictions: the US SEC's 2024 climate disclosure rules do not include the scope of 75% of the industry's total emissions; In September 2025, the EPA proposed to suspend greenhouse gas reporting obligations for large facilities and energy suppliers, and the carbon capture sector warned that this move would result in $77.5 billion in investment being stranded.

范围3排放的量化困境尤为突出，其50.3%来自上游供应链、25.8%来自下游消费端，但因价值链复杂、数据失真与核算标准缺失导致管控低效。科迪华的实践显示，即便1000家核心供应商减排20%，仅能带动自身范围3排放下降1%。

The quantification dilemma of Scope 3 emissions is particularly prominent, with 50.3% coming from the upstream supply chain and 25.8% from the downstream consumer end. However, due to the complexity of the value chain, data distortion, and lack of accounting standards, the control is inefficient. Kedi Hua's practice shows that even if 1000 core suppliers reduce emissions by 20%, it can only drive a 1% reduction in their own Scope 3 emissions.

绿色溢价难获市场买单

Green premiums are difficult to capture market demand

市场需求不足成为脱碳转型的“最后一道关卡”。巴斯夫坦言，绿色产品需求缺失导致转型缺乏商业合理性；陶氏CEO吉姆·菲特林也表示，客户虽认可低碳产品，但对“绿色溢价”接受度有限。在全球经济下行背景下，消费者更倾向于成本控制，这进一步抑制了可持续产品市场扩容。

市场需求不足成为脱碳转型的“最后一道关卡”。巴斯夫坦言，绿色产品需求缺失导致转型缺乏商业合理性；陶氏CEO吉姆·菲特林也表示，客户虽认可低碳产品，但对“绿色溢价”接受度有限。在全球经济下行背景下，消费者更倾向于成本控制，这进一步抑制了可持续产品市场扩容。

尽管主流企业仍对2030年目标持乐观态度，但数据揭示出严峻现实：2020年以来，全球市值前12大化工企业直接和间接碳排放量仅下降8.7%，产业链排放降幅更仅2.1%。化工行业要破解脱碳“两难”，需政策端构建稳定激励机制、技术端加速成熟应用、市场端培育绿色需求，形成“政策-技术-市场”的协同发力格局。

尽管主流企业仍对2030年目标持乐观态度，但数据揭示出严峻现实：2020年以来，全球市值前12大化工企业直接和间接碳排放量仅下降8.7%，产业链排放降幅更仅2.1%。化工行业要破解脱碳“两难”，需政策端构建稳定激励机制、技术端加速成熟应用、市场端培育绿色需求，形成“政策-技术-市场”的协同发力格局。