Moody’s turns negative on higher ed’s financial outlook amid Trump cuts
在特朗普政府削减经费的背景下，穆迪对高等教育的财务前景做出负面评估。
Dive Brief:
潜水简介：
Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday dropped its outlook for higher education in 2025 to negative from stable amid the Trump administration’s financial attacks on the sector.
周二，穆迪评级在特朗普政府对高等教育领域实施财政削减举措之际，将 2025 年高等教育的展望从稳定调整为负面。
In a report, analysts with the credit rating agency said recent or looming federal policy changes could pose wide-ranging risks to colleges, with several being of medium to high severity and potentially affecting all institutions in the sector.
在一份报告中，该信用评级机构的分析师指出，近期或即将出台的联邦政策变化可能会给高校带来广泛风险，其中多项风险具有中高程度的严重性，并可能影响该领域的所有机构。
Those risks include the potential for heavy research funding cuts, higher endowment taxes, interruptions in student aid, visa restrictions slowing international student enrollment, and pulling funding for institutions that run afoul of the Trump administration’s directives.
这些风险包括可能大幅削减研究经费、提高捐赠税、中断学生资助、签证限制导致国际学生招生放缓，以及取消对违背特朗普政府指令的机构的资助。
Dive Insight:
潜水洞察：
In December, credit analysts with both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings predicted potential financial challenges and bright spots for colleges in the coming year.
去年 12 月，来自穆迪和标普全球评级的信用分析师预测，高校在未来一年可能面临财务挑战，同时也存在发展亮点。
On the positive side, inflation was slowing, state funding was ticking up, and expenses and revenue were beginning to align for many institutions after years of cuts. But two months into President Donald Trump’s second term, the environment for colleges is far more uncertain and potentially punishing.
积极的一面是，通货膨胀正在放缓，州政府资助逐步增加，许多机构在经历多年削减后，收支开始趋于平衡。但在唐纳德・特朗普总统开启第二任期两个月后，高校面临的环境变得更加不确定，且可能带来严重后果。
For one, the National Institutes of Health’s move to cut billions in funds by capping reimbursements for indirect research costs at 15% could mean tens of millions of dollars lost each for top research universities. Those hit hardest will be universities with large medical centers that conduct health research, according to Moody’s.
例如，美国国立卫生研究院采取举措，通过将间接研究成本报销上限设定为 15% 来削减数十亿美元资金，这可能意味着每所顶尖研究型大学每年损失数千万美元。穆迪指出，受影响最严重的将是拥有大型医疗中心并从事健康研究的大学。
A federal judge has blocked NIH from imposing its funding cap as legal challenges to the policy play out. But the ultimate outcome and levels of funding from the agency remain uncertain. Major universities have frozen hiring and budgets as they hedge against uncertainty.
在针对该政策的法律诉讼仍在进行期间，一名联邦法官已阻止美国国立卫生研究院实施其资金上限政策。但该机构的最终资金分配结果及资助水平仍不明朗。为规避不确定性，主要大学已冻结招聘和预算。
Stalled and delayed grant reviews under the Trump administration have already disrupted research at NIH.
在特朗普政府执政期间，（美国国立卫生研究院）科研经费拨款评审工作的停滞和延误，已然对美国国立卫生研究院的研究工作造成了干扰。
“The administrative suspension of the NIH grant review process has already halted research at laboratories across the country,” analysts said in their report. “The downstream impact of halting or reducing research will impede new discoveries in medical treatments and technological development across the wider economy,.” the analysts said
分析师在报告中指出：“美国国立卫生研究院科研经费拨款评审程序的行政性暂停，已经使全国范围内实验室的研究工作陷入停滞。” 分析师还表示：“暂停或减少研究工作所带来的后续影响，将阻碍在医学治疗方面的新发现，以及更广泛经济领域内的技术发展。”
The analysts also pointed to massive staff cuts at the U.S. Department of Education as a potential threat to student aid programs, noting that the largest share of employees in the agency are housed in the student aid office.
分析师们还指出，美国教育部大规模裁员是对学生资助项目的一个潜在威胁，并提到该机构的员工中，占比最大的一部分人在学生资助办公室任职。
“Since the bulk of institutions rely on revenue from student charges that is provided by federal student loans and Pell Grants, any disruption in the administration of those funds will cause financial stress across the entire sector,” the analysts said.
分析师们表示：“由于大多数院校都依赖来自联邦学生贷款和佩尔助学金所提供的学生缴费收入，因此这些资金在管理方面的任何中断，都将给整个高等教育领域带来财务压力。”
They added that the potential financial impact of “even a temporary cessation in federal student loan origination or Pell Grant disbursement” would be greater than that caused by last year’s troubled rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid form.
他们还补充道，“哪怕联邦学生贷款发放或佩尔助学金拨付只是暂时中断”，其潜在的财务影响也会比去年新的联邦学生资助免费申请表推出时状况百出所造成的影响更为严重。
And then there are the Trump administration’s attacks on individual institutions. Multiple agencies slashed a combined $400 million of Columbia University’s federal grants and contracts for not taking a harder line against pro-Palestinian protesters on its campus.
此外，特朗普政府还对一些个别院校发起了攻势。多家机构以哥伦比亚大学未对校园内亲巴勒斯坦的抗议者采取更强硬的立场为由，总计削减了该校 4 亿美元的联邦拨款和合同经费。
Since then, the Education Department put a total of 60 institutions on notice that they could face sanctions if the agency determines they are not doing enough to protect Jewish students from harassment.
自那以后，美国教育部已向总共 60 所院校发出通知，称如果该部门认定这些院校在保护犹太学生免受骚扰方面做得不够，它们可能会面临制裁。
The department has also launched investigations into 50 colleges over allegations that their programs and scholarships have race-based restrictions amid Trump’s crackdown on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
在美国总统特朗普严厉打击多样性、公平性和包容性举措的背景下，美国教育部还针对 50 所高校展开了调查，原因是有指控称这些高校的项目和奖学金存在基于种族的限制。
Those probes follow guidance from the Education Department ordering education programs to eliminate race-based practices for admissions, hiring and other programming or face loss of federal funding.
在这些调查之前，美国教育部曾发布指导意见，要求各教育项目取消在招生、招聘及其他项目安排中基于种族的做法，否则将面临失去联邦资助的后果。
“Many institutions have eliminated their DEI offices and downsized similar diversity initiatives to avoid sanction,” Moody’s analysts noted. “Selective high-profile enforcement actions against individual institutions have left leaders across the sector in a state of uncertainty.”
穆迪的分析师指出：“许多院校为了避免受到制裁，已经撤销了它们的多样性、公平性与包容性（DEI）办公室，并缩减了类似的促进多样性的举措。” “针对个别院校采取的一些引人注目的选择性执法行动，已使整个教育领域的领导者们陷入了一种不确定的状态。”
