锂产业链全环节需持续投资

The whole link of lithium industry chain needs continuous investment

近日，伍德麦肯兹发布最新《锂能源转型展望》报告显示，随着能源转型加速推进，在净零排放情景下，2050年全球锂需求可能超过1300万吨(碳酸锂当量，LCE)，较基准情景预测翻倍。该机构警告，若缺乏大规模新增投资，锂供应缺口最早可能在2028年出现;即便在基准情景下，现有项目也难以满足2035年前后的锂需求，凸显出锂产业链全环节持续投资的必要性。

Recently, Wood Mackenzie released the latest "Lithium Energy Transformation Outlook" report, which shows that with the acceleration of energy transformation, under the net zero emission scenario, the global lithium demand may exceed 13 million tons (lithium carbonate equivalent, LCE) in 2050, doubling the forecast of the benchmark scenario. The agency warned that in the absence of large-scale new investment, a lithium supply gap could appear as early as 2028; Even under the benchmark scenario, existing projects are difficult to meet the lithium demand around 2035, highlighting the need for continuous investment in the whole link of the lithium industry chain.

“锂市场陷入供应紧缩的时间将比许多行业参与者预期的早得多。”伍德麦肯兹研究总监艾伦·彼得森表示，“在激进的气候情景下，我们预计2028年将出现锂供应缺口。如果各国政府推进净零排放政策，行业必须立即采取行动。如今批准的锂项目，将决定关键的21世纪30年代全球锂市场的平衡。”

"The lithium market will fall into a supply crunch much earlier than many industry players anticipate." Alan Peterson, director of research at Wood Mackenzie, said, "Under an aggressive climate scenario, we expect a lithium supply shortfall in 2028. If governments move forward with net-zero emissions policies, the industry must act immediately. Lithium projects approved today will determine the balance of the global lithium market in the critical 2030s."

2050年锂需求呈现显著差异：延迟转型情景下为560万吨LCE，净零排放情景下则达1320万吨LCE。具体来看，延迟转型情景下，锂市场将维持充足供应至2037年，之后才会出现缺口;国家承诺情景下，缺口约在2029年出现，到2050年需额外增加670万吨LCE供应以满足需求;净零排放情景下，缺口预计从2028年开始，且将持续至本世纪中叶，2050年需额外供应约850万吨LCE。

There is a significant difference in lithium demand in 2050: 5.6 million tonnes of LCE in the delayed transition scenario and 13.2 million tonnes of LCE in the net zero emission scenario. Specifically, under the delayed transformation scenario, the lithium market will maintain sufficient supply until 2037, after which there will be a gap; Under the national commitment scenario, the gap will appear around 2029, and an additional 6.7 million tons of LCE supply will need to be added by 2050 to meet demand; Under the net-zero scenario, the gap is expected to start in 2028 and continue until the middle of the century, with an additional supply of approximately 8.5 million tonnes of LCE required in 2050.

电动汽车仍是锂需求增长的首要驱动力，在所有情景中均占锂消费量的72%至80%。其中，国家承诺情景下，2040年电动汽车渗透率约达75%;净零排放情景下，这一比例将升至95%。报告还指出，到本世纪中叶，所有应用领域的可充电电池将占锂消费量的96%至98%。

Electric vehicles remain the top driver of lithium demand growth, accounting for between 72% and 80% of lithium consumption in all scenarios. Among them, under the national commitment scenario, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach about 75% in 2040; This would rise to 95% under the net-zero scenario. The report also notes that rechargeable batteries across all applications will account for 96% to 98% of lithium consumption by the middle of the century.

锂需求的快速增长需要大量新增供应。国家承诺情景下，2050年锂供应缺口将达670万吨LCE;净零排放情景下，缺口将扩大至850万吨LCE。尽管锂回收供应量每年将以13%至16%的速度增长，但难以解决短期的短缺问题。预计从21世纪40年代开始，随着电动汽车电池达到使用寿命，锂回收量将实现规模化增长。伍德麦肯兹指出，在激进情景下，到2050年，回收锂将贡献230万至270万吨LCE。

Rapid growth in lithium demand requires significant additional supply. Under the national commitment scenario, the lithium supply gap will reach 6.7 million tons of LCE in 2050; Under the net-zero scenario, the gap will widen to 8.5 million tonnes of LCE. Although lithium recycling supply will grow at a rate of 13% to 16% annually, it is difficult to address short-term shortages. Lithium recycling is expected to grow at scale as EV batteries reach their useful lives starting in the 2040s. Under the radical scenario, recycled lithium would contribute between 2.3 million and 2.7 million tonnes of LCE by 2050, Wood Mackenzie noted.

满足锂需求需要前所未有的投资。据伍德麦肯兹测算，不同转型情景下的投资需求差异显著：延迟转型情景约需1040亿美元，基准情景约需1140亿美元，国家承诺情景约需2360亿美元，净零排放情景则高达2760亿美元。投资预计将在2030年至2034年间达到峰值，主要驱动力是新增采矿产能、精炼基础设施及区域供应链建设的需求。

Meeting lithium demand requires unprecedented investment. According to Wood Mackenz's calculation, the investment demand under different transformation scenarios is significantly different: the delayed transformation scenario needs about 104 billion US dollars, the benchmark scenario needs about 114 billion US dollars, the national commitment scenario needs about 236 billion US dollars, and the net zero emission scenario is as high as 276 billion US dollars. Investment is expected to peak between 2030 and 2034, primarily driven by demand for additional mining capacity, refining infrastructure and regional supply chain construction.

“这是一个规模在1000亿至2750亿美元之间的投资命题，具体取决于能源转型的推进速度。”伍德麦肯兹高级研究分析师丽贝卡·格兰特表示，“赢家将是那些能够高效配置资本、应对贸易碎片化，并确保区域市场准入的企业。”

"This is an investment proposition between $100 billion and $275 billion, depending on how quickly the energy transition moves forward." Rebecca Grant, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said that "the winners will be those companies that can efficiently allocate capital, deal with trade fragmentation, and ensure regional market access."

值得注意的是，尽管能源转型存在四种路径，但结论高度一致：锂是能源转型不可或缺的关键材料，锂行业面临结构性供应挑战，亟须立即采取行动。彼得森总结道：“无论我们走的是1.5℃温控路径，还是相对温和的路径，锂需求都将超过当前的供应计划。问题不在于我们是否需要更多锂，而在于行业能否在日益碎片化的全球贸易环境中，足够快地调动资本以满足需求。”

Notably, although there are four pathways to the energy transition, the conclusions are highly consistent: lithium is an indispensable key material for the energy transition, and the lithium industry faces structural supply challenges that urgently require immediate action. Peterson concluded: "Whether we take a 1.5℃ temperature-controlled path or a relatively mild path, lithium demand will exceed the current supply plan. The question is not whether we need more lithium, but whether the industry can mobilize capital quickly enough to meet demand in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment."