Who’s Winning—And Who’s Losing—The War Over 5G

5G之战谁赢谁输

The outbreak and spread of the Coronavirus aroused global doubts about the Chinese government’s credibility and trustworthiness—and no wonder.With the evidence mounting that, even when Beijing and President Xi Jingpin knew how deadly the initial outbreak was, they allowed Chinese citizens to travel and spread the virus to other countries, everyone has to ponder the risks of doing business with China—including companies that are only extensions of the Chinese Communist Party’s will.

冠状病毒的爆发和蔓延引发了全球对中国政府信誉和可信度的怀疑——这也不足为奇。越来越多的证据表明，即使北京和国家主席习近平知道最初疫情的致命性，他们仍然允许中国公民旅行并将病毒传播到其他国家，每个人都必须考虑与中国做生意的风险——包括那些只是中国共产党意志延伸的公司。

That includes the telecom giant Huawei.In the middle of Huawei’s push to dominate the future of telecommunications with 5G—with 90-plus countries signed up as partners—the coronavirus outbreak threatened to be a public relations disaster.Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei, however, didn’t let himself get caught on his back foot.Realizing that the future of Huawei’s 5G empire was at stake, he launched a charm offensive to reassure his company’s Western partners.Huawei donated large quantities of medical supplies to countries that are crucial to its 5G strategy, including 6 million medical masks to Canada (never mind that Spain, Turkey and The Netherlands—another recipient of Ren’s largesse—have all complained about the faulty medical equipment they’ve gotten from China).

其中包括电信巨头华为。在华为努力利用 5G 主导电信未来（已有 90 多个国家签约成为合作伙伴）的过程中，冠状病毒的爆发有可能成为一场公关灾难。然而，华为首席执行官任正非并没有让自己陷入困境。意识到华为 5G 帝国的未来岌岌可危，他发起了一场魅力攻势，以安抚公司的西方合作伙伴。华为向对其 5G 战略至关重要的国家捐赠了大量医疗用品，包括向加拿大捐赠的 600 万个医用口罩（西班牙、土耳其和荷兰——另一个接受任正非慷慨捐赠的国家——都抱怨他们从中国获得的医疗设备有缺陷）。

Now the charm offensive is over.According to the Wall Street Journal, as early as February Ren was telling employees “the company has entered a state of war.”He urged them to “surge forward, killing as you go, to blaze us a trail of blood.” (the language in a transcript of Ren’s remarks was confirmed by two Huawei employees).

如今，魅力攻势已经结束。据《华尔街日报》报道，早在二月份，任正非就告诉员工“公司已经进入战争状态”，他敦促员工“奋勇向前，杀出一条血路”。(任正非讲话记录中的这一措辞得到了两名华为员工的证实)。

Who is Huawei at war with, if only metaphorically?Answer: The United States government and the Trump administration, who are trying to warn allies and others about the dangers of relying on Huawei for their 5G future, given the firm’s record as an alleged cyber and IP thief and its reputed deep ties to Chinese military and spy agencies.

如果只是比喻的话，华为在与谁交战？答案：美国政府和特朗普政府，他们正试图警告盟友和其他国家，依赖华为发展 5G 未来的危险，因为该公司有涉嫌网络和知识产权盗窃的记录，并且据称与中国军方和间谍机构关系密切。

Huawei sees the struggle over 5G as the equivalent of war.We need to start doing the same, because who dominates 5G will dominate the world.

华为将5G之争视为战争。我们也需要开始这样做，因为谁主宰了5G，谁就主宰了世界。

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Right now the main battleground is Europe.As I described in a previous column, the clash of telecom armies has been most intense in Britain, where prime minister Boris Johnson’s personal experience with the disease Beijing lied about to the world, has made him wary of handing over Britain’s 5G future to one of Xi’s favorite companies.

目前，主要战场是欧洲。正如我在之前的专栏中所描述的，电信大军的冲突在英国最为激烈，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊亲身经历了北京向世界撒谎的疫情，这让他对将英国的 5G 未来交给习近平最喜欢的公司之一感到担忧。

Yet the Trump administration’s case for joining its ban on Huawei technology, and for a Huawei-free 5G option, has been growing weaker. On the one hand, COVID has damaged China’s reputation, and with it Huawei’s.But Beijing and Ren hope that the pandemic has done even more damage to that of the U.S.Our prolonged lockdown economy, and the George Floyd-inspired demonstrations and riots in major cities, give Europeans and others a picture of an America in chaos.Who will be the best partner and guide to your future, Ren can ask his potential customers, the U.S. or China?

然而，特朗普政府支持禁止华为技术以及支持无华为5G网络的理由却越来越薄弱。一方面，新冠疫情损害了中国的声誉，华为的声誉也因此受损。但北京和任正非希望这场疫情对美国的声誉造成更大的损害。美国长期的封锁经济，以及乔治·弗洛伊德事件引发的各大城市示威和骚乱，让欧洲和其他国家看到了美国一片混乱的景象。任正非可以问问他的潜在客户：谁才是你未来的最佳合作伙伴和引路人？美国还是中国？

Germany, it seems, has made its choice.Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cozy relationship with Beijing (compared to her frigid dealings with Trump) is mirrored by Deutsche Telekom’s coziness with Huawei.So has Italy.Other allies, including Canada, still hover uncomfortably on the fence. But if we don’t respond to Huawei’s effective declaration of war, the U.S.-led 5G effort will look more than Dieppe than D-Day—a doomed experiment in establishing a beachhead that only leaves burning landing craft along the strand.

德国似乎已经做出了选择。德国总理安格拉·默克尔与北京的亲密关系（相比她与特朗普的冷淡交锋）与德国电信与华为的亲密关系如出一辙。意大利也是如此。包括加拿大在内的其他盟友仍然在令人不安的摇摆不定中徘徊。但如果我们不回应华为实际上的宣战，那么美国主导的5G计划看起来将比迪耶普战役更像诺曼底登陆——一场注定失败的滩头阵地建设实验，最终只会在海岸边留下燃烧的登陆艇。

Thus far the US doesn’t have a Ren, or a Patton or MacArthur to lead its 5G campaign.Current officials overseeing our telecom policy are doing what they can. But taking the anti-Huawei 5G case abroad requires clear understanding of both the technology and the geopolitical stakes. It means pressing the U.S. case convincingly on skeptical European and Middle East audiences, not to mention in Latin America where Huawei’s growing influence has been the clearest assault on the Monroe Doctrine since Soviet nuclear weapons turned up in Cuba.

到目前为止，美国还没有像任正非、巴顿将军或麦克阿瑟将军那样的人来领导其5G行动。目前负责监管美国电信政策的官员正在竭尽所能。但要将反华为5G行动推向海外，需要对技术和地缘政治风险都有清晰的了解。这意味着要向持怀疑态度的欧洲和中东民众，以及拉丁美洲，令人信服地推进美国的行动，华为在拉丁美洲日益增长的影响力，是对门罗主义自苏联核武器在古巴出现以来最明显的挑战。

Ren Zhengfei’s “trail of blood” language wasn’t meant literally: but it shows he understands that who dominates 5G will dominate the 21st century.

任正非所说的“血路”并非字面意思，而是表明他明白谁主宰了5G，谁就主宰了21世纪。

Do we?

我们有吗？