高盛预测铜价将下跌11000美元/吨，因市场基本面放宽

Goldman Sachs Predicts Copper Prices to Fall to $11,000 per Tonne Amid Easing Market Fundamentals

【环球网财经综合报道】近几个月来铜价飙升，但高盛分析师表示未来价格可能会大幅下跌。《巴伦周刊》援引高盛分析师预测，由于市场基本面放宽，LME铜价可能在2026年12月跌至每吨11000美元。

[Huanqiu.com Financial Report] Copper prices have surged in recent months, but Goldman Sachs analysts warn of a potentially sharp decline ahead. Citing Goldman Sachs analysts, Barron's reported that LME copper prices could retreat to $11,000 per tonne by December 2026 as market fundamentals ease.

彭博社报道也谈到，随着交易员权衡反弹对需求的影响，铜价从历史高点回落。市场盘点了一场可能冲击关键工业投入物的实物需求的创纪录反弹。1月15日，伦敦金属交易所上的红色金属价格下跌了0.6%，部分回吐了近期涨幅。无论是基础金属还是贵金属，都在2026 年开局的数周里大幅走高，这主要得益于投资者对包括大宗商品在内的实物资产的热情高涨。

Bloomberg also reported that copper prices pulled back from their record highs as traders weighed the impact of the rally on demand. Markets took stock of a record-breaking rally that could dent physical demand for key industrial inputs. On January 15, the red metal on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6%, giving back a portion of its recent gains. Both base metals and precious metals surged sharply in the opening weeks of 2026, driven primarily by heightened investor appetite for tangible assets, including commodities.assets, including commodities.

此前，伦敦金属交易所期铜价格于1月14日盘中一度攀升至每吨13407美元的历史峰值。国内市场方面，铜期货价格同样大幅飙升，突破每吨10万元整数关口，市场热度持续攀升。

Prior to this, LME copper futures had climbed intraday to an all-time high of $13,407 per tonne on January 14. On the domestic market, copper futures prices similarly spiked sharply, breaking through the psychologically significant round-number threshold of CNY 100,000 per tonne, with market sentiment continuing to run hot.

分析人士认为，此次铜价快速冲高是多重因素共振的结果，既涵盖供需层面的结构性失衡，也叠加了市场情绪溢价与资金炒作的推动。供给端来看，南美国家掌控着全球40%的铜储量，但受能源紧张等因素影响，铜矿产能释放受限。需求端的增量则较为显著，AI数据中心、新能源汽车、工业机器人等新兴领域的用铜需求正加速释放，成为支撑铜价高位运行的力量。（闻辉）

Analysts believe the rapid spike in copper prices is the result of a confluence of multiple factors, encompassing structural supply-demand imbalances alongside sentiment-driven premiums and speculative capital flows. On the supply side, South American countries hold 40% of global copper reserves, but copper mining output capacity has been constrained by factors including energy supply tightness. On the demand side, incremental growth has been particularly pronounced, with copper consumption accelerating in emerging sectors such as AI data centers, new energy vehicles (NEVs), and industrial robots — all of which have become key supportive forces underpinning elevated copper prices. (By Wen Hui)