India's plan to boost manufacturing reportedly to lapse; fostering cooperative ties with China conducive to its manufacturing capability
据报道，印度提振制造业的计划即将失效；加强对华合作有助于提升其制造业能力。
Employees work at a company at Haringhata, India on August 3, 2023. Photo: VCG
2023年8月3日，员工在印度哈林哈塔的一家公司工作。照片：VCG
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has decided to let lapse a $23 billion program to incentivize domestic manufacturing, just four years after it launched the effort to woo firms away from China, Reuters reported citing four government officials.
据路透社援引四位政府官员的话报道，印度总理纳伦德拉・莫迪政府决定放弃一项价值 230 亿美元的激励国内制造业计划 —— 该计划启动以吸引企业撤离中国，至今仅过去四年。
Chinese observers said India's abandonment of this specific strategic plan which is aimed at realizing its "Make in India" vision reflects that the South Asian nation is facing quite some limitations to support this manufacturing ambition, and they noted, instead, fostering cooperative relations with China is more conducive for New Delhi to boost its manufacturing capability.
中国观察家指出，印度放弃这项旨在实现 “印度制造” 愿景的特定战略计划，反映出这个南亚国家在支撑其制造业雄心方面面临诸多局限性；他们并强调，加强与中国的合作关系，更有利于新德里提升制造业能力。
The report said the Indian government hoped to raise the share of manufacturing in the economy to 25 percent by 2025. However, since the plan's introduction, manufacturing's share of the economy has decreased from 15.4 to 14.3 percent.
报告指出，印度政府曾希望到 2025 年将制造业在经济中的占比提高至 25%。然而自该计划实施以来，制造业占经济的比重已从 15.4% 降至 14.3%。
Many firms that participated in the Production-Linked Initiative scheme failed to kickstart production, while others that met manufacturing targets found India slow to pay out subsidies, Reuters report said.
据路透社报道，许多参与 “生产关联激励计划” 的企业未能启动生产，而部分达到生产目标的企业则发现印度拖延发放补贴。
While the scheme attracted some top-tier firms in sectors like mobile phones and pharmaceuticals, India's overall bid to rival China in global manufacturing chains has fallen short, Liu Zongyi, director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times.
上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任刘宗义在接受《环球时报》采访时表示，虽然该计划吸引了手机和制药等行业的一些顶级企业，但印度在全球制造业链条中与中国竞争的整体努力却成效不足。
Some 94 percent of the nearly $620 million in incentives disbursed between April and October 2024 were directed to those two sectors, according to Reuters report.
据路透社报道，2024 年 4 月至 10 月期间发放的近 6.2 亿美元激励措施中，约 94% 用于那两个行业。
India's decision to scrap the scheme stems partly from weak administrative efficiency, said Long Xingchun, a professor from the School of International Relations at Sichuan International Studies University.
四川外国语大学国际关系学院教授龙兴春表示，印度决定取消该计划，部分原因在于其行政效率低下。
"Essentially, India has to face the reality that India does not currently possess the necessary conditions for the rapid growth of large-scale manufacturing," Long told the Global Times. To develop a manufacturing sector, aside from government incentives and fiscal subsidies, robust infrastructure is essential. This includes reliable infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and a well-established supply chain. Unfortunately, India lacks these critical elements, Long said.
龙兴春在接受《环球时报》采访时表示：“从根本上说，印度必须面对现实 —— 当前印度尚不具备大规模制造业快速发展的必要条件。” 他指出，要发展制造业，除了政府激励和财政补贴，强健的基础设施必不可少。这包括可靠的基础设施、熟练的劳动力以及成熟的供应链。遗憾的是，印度恰恰缺乏这些关键要素。
Long also noted a lack of policy sincerity, arguing India's promised subsidy were hard to access in practice. Recognizing these challenges and stringent conditions to be met, foreign investors have not been very enthusiastic to the plan.
龙兴春还指出印度缺乏政策诚意，并认为印度承诺的补贴在实际中难以落实。鉴于这些挑战以及需要满足的严苛条件，外国投资者对该计划一直不太热衷。
"India may abandon this specific strategic plan, but it may not give up on its 'Make in India' vision," Long said, noting that manufacturing is vital for job creation, growth, and national strength.
龙兴春表示：“印度可能放弃这一特定战略计划，但未必会放弃‘印度制造’愿景。” 他指出，制造业对创造就业、推动经济增长以及增强国家实力至关重要。
Liu echoed that view, adding India is likely assessing whether new opportunities have emerged. India's ambition of strengthening its manufacturing sector and transforming itself into an economic powerhouse or even a global power have not receded, he added.
刘宗义赞同这一观点，补充说印度可能在评估是否出现了新机遇。他进一步指出，印度加强制造业并将自身转变为经济强国乃至全球大国的雄心并未减弱。
"India aims to leverage the US' Indo-Pacific strategy to push the shift of global supply chains from China to itself," Liu said.
刘说：“印度的目标是利用美国的印太战略，推动全球供应链从中国转向本国。”
According to Arvind Subramanian, a former economic adviser to the Indian government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized on the opportunity to encourage businesses to shift their manufacturing to China, NPR reported. With US President Donald Trump in power again, India hopes to profit by luring more manufacturing to its shores, the report said.
据美国国家公共电台报道，印度政府前经济顾问阿尔温德・苏布拉马尼亚称，印度总理纳伦德拉・莫迪抓住机会鼓励企业将制造业转移至印度。报告指出，随着美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普再次执政，印度希望通过吸引更多制造业落地本国而受益。
However, Long said that by avoiding confrontation [with China] and actively fostering cooperative ties with China, India could gain a great deal of opportunities in manufactures.
龙兴春表示，印度若避免（与中国）对抗并积极加强对华合作关系，便能在制造业领域获得大量发展机遇。
It is possible for some of China's industries to move to India and conduct production capacity cooperation with India. Also, we could have cooperation on the integration of supply chains, according to Long, adding that India's manufacturing sector needs to purchase equipment and technology from China, as well as sourcing Chinese components.
龙兴春表示，部分中国产业有可能转移至印度，并与印度开展产能合作。他补充说，双方还可在供应链整合方面展开合作，印度制造业需要从中国采购设备与技术，同时也需采购中国零部件。
"Whether it's local Indian companies or foreign enterprises from Japan, Europe, or elsewhere investing in India, they depend on China's supply chain support," Long said.
龙兴春表示：“无论是印度本土企业，还是来自日本、欧洲或其他地区的在印投资外企，均依赖中国的供应链支持。”
Recent remarks from Modi have signaled a warmer tone toward China. Speaking in a recent podcast, Modi advocated for healthy competition between the two nations, emphasizing that competition should never turn into conflict.
莫迪的最新言论显示出对中国更温和的语气。在最近的一次播客中发表讲话时，莫迪倡导两国开展健康竞争，并强调竞争绝不应演变为冲突。
"We are now working to restore conditions to how they were before 2020. Slowly but surely, trust, enthusiasm and energy will return."
“我们现在正在努力将条件恢复到2020年之前的水平。肯定的是，信任、热情和能量都将缓慢回归。”
"Modi's recent positive remarks on China-India relations are seen as a pragmatic approach to advancing bilateral ties and have been welcomed by the Chinese government. However, whether these remarks can translate into effective policies remains to be seen," Liu told the Global Times. "Cooperation and competition can coexist."
刘宗义向《环球时报》表示：“莫迪近期对中印关系的积极表态被视为推进双边关系的务实做法，得到中国政府的欢迎。然而，这些表态能否转化为有效政策仍有待观察。” 他补充道，“合作与竞争可以并存。”
Still, India's Commerce Ministry recently asked the industry to identify areas where sourcing from China and other countries can be replaced by American goods, executives familiar with the development told The Indian Express last week.
据熟悉情况的高管上周向《印度快报》透露，尽管如此，印度商务部近期仍要求行业确定可由美国商品取代从中国及其他国家采购的领域。
"Being partners in mutual achievement and realizing "a cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant is the only right choice for China and India," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on March 17 on China-India relations.
中国外交部发言人毛宁 3 月 17 日就中印关系表示：“成为彼此成就的伙伴，实现‘龙象共舞’的合作，是中印两国唯一正确的选择。”
