德国：基础化学品何去何从？

“Germany: The Future of Basic Chemicals”

编者按 德国是欧盟主要化学品生产国。关键财务数据显示，德国化工行业的前景并不乐观。然而，从当前的企业行为来看，尽管德国基础化学品市场正在萎缩，精细化学品的投资依然火热，整体化工行业的转型进程明显加快。得益于此，德国仍将是与美国和日本一样具有吸引力的化工生产基地。近期，本刊特邀请德国联邦外贸与投资署相关人士就其化学品行业发展情况于读者交流，以供参考。

Editor’s Note: Germany is one of the leading producers of chemicals in the European Union. Key financial indicators suggest a rather gloomy outlook for the country’s chemical industry. However, judging from recent corporate actions, despite the shrinking market for basic chemicals, investment in fine chemicals remains robust, and the overall transformation of the chemical sector is clearly accelerating. Thanks to these developments, Germany continues to be an attractive hub for chemical manufacturing, alongside the United States and Japan. In light of this, we have invited representatives from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) to share insights into the country’s chemical industry, offering readers a valuable reference.

过去20年，全球化工市场发展迅速，销售额从2003年的1.62万亿欧元增至2023年的5.95万亿欧元，年均增长率为6%。然而，这一增长主要得益于中国市场。与所有其他老牌工业化地区一样，欧盟27国的化工行业在全球范围内失去了市场份额，从2003年的33%降至2023年的13%。尽管如此，欧洲化学工业在此期间仍实现了年均1%的增长，欧盟化学品市场的营业额从5340亿欧元增至6550亿欧元。

Over the past 20 years, the global chemical market has expanded rapidly, with sales rising from €1.62 trillion in 2003 to €5.95 trillion in 2023, representing an average annual growth rate of 6%. However, this growth has been driven primarily by the Chinese market. Like all other mature industrial regions, the chemical industry in the EU-27 has lost global market share, dropping from 33% in 2003 to 13% in 2023. Nevertheless, Europe’s chemical sector still achieved an average annual growth rate of 1% over the same period, with the EU's chemical sales increasing from €534 billion to €655 billion.

在欧盟27国中，德国化工行业多年来一直处于领先地位，2023年的销售额约占欧洲总销售额的三分之一。德国化工市场对外国投资（FDI）同样具有吸引力。FDI Markets的分析表明，2019至2023年，欧盟的大部分外国化工投资都在德国实现。无论是在出口额还是在欧洲专利局的专利申请方面，德国化学工业同样取得了成功，在全球国家排名中均位居第三。

Among the 27 EU member states, Germany’s chemical industry has maintained a leading position for many years, accounting for approximately one-third of Europe’s total chemical sales in 2023. The German chemical market is also highly attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). According to analysis by FDI Markets, most foreign chemical investments in the EU between 2019 and 2023 were made in Germany. Germany’s chemical industry has also performed strongly in terms of exports and patent applications filed with the European Patent Office (EPO), ranking third globally in both categories.

但从经济数据看，2022年，德国化工销售额短暂增长至2020亿欧元，但在2023年又明显下降至1670亿欧元，2024年的销售额与2023年相似。

However, economic data shows that Germany’s chemical sales temporarily rose to €202 billion in 2022, but dropped significantly to €167 billion in 2023. Sales in 2024 are expected to remain roughly the same as in 2023.

在基础化学品方面，2024年基础化学品的产量比2023年增加了8%，但还不能弥补前几年约25%的大幅下降。基础化学品部门产量的下降不是短期现象，自2015年以来，德国该部门的产量一直在减少，尤其是乙烯、丙烯和氯气等重要的基础化学品。这些化学品在化工行业的价值创造中占有重要份额，它们的产量分别下降了约四分之一。

In the field of basic chemicals, production in 2024 increased by 8% compared to 2023, but this is still insufficient to offset the sharp decline of around 25% experienced over the previous years. The drop in output from the basic chemicals sector is not a short-term phenomenon. Since 2015, production in this segment has been steadily decreasing in Germany, especially for key substances such as ethylene, propylene, and chlorine. These chemicals play a crucial role in value creation within the chemical industry, yet their production has each declined by approximately one quarter.

这一问题也反映在基础化学品的投资活动中。在已公布的投资项目中，只有一项是英力士公司在马尔投资新建的年产75万吨异丙苯工厂，并已于2023年投产。此外，两家使用生物原料而非石化原料的新大型工厂也引人注目。一个是位于Zeitz的CropEnergies生产厂，每年利用生物乙醇生产5.5万吨醋酸乙酯；另一个是位于Leuna的UPM新厂，每年利用榉木生产22万吨乙二醇和丙二醇。

This issue is also reflected in investment activity related to basic chemicals. Among the announced investment projects, only one involves the construction of a new plant by INEOS in Marl, with an annual capacity of 750,000 tons of cumene, which went into operation in 2023. In addition, two major new facilities that use bio-based rather than petrochemical feedstocks are particularly noteworthy. One is the CropEnergies plant in Zeitz, which produces 55,000 tons of ethyl acetate per year from bioethanol. The other is UPM’s new facility in Leuna, which produces 220,000 tons of ethylene glycol and propylene glycol annually from beechwood.

目前，德国基础化学品投资在所有投资中的占比已从约三分之一降至十分之一。波士顿咨询公司（BCG）和德国化学工业协会（VCI）最近发布的一份关于德国作为工业基地的研究报告也反映了这一点，在接受调查的约300家化工企业中，74%的企业表示不太可能或极不可能在德国扩大生产。

Currently, investments in basic chemicals account for only one-tenth of total chemical investments in Germany, down from about one-third. This trend is also reflected in a recent study on Germany as an industrial location, published by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI). Among the approximately 300 chemical companies surveyed, 74% stated that they are unlikely or very unlikely to expand production in Germany.

与基础化学品形成鲜明对比的是，特种化学品领域的投资活动十分活跃，该领域的投资约占德国化工近期所有投资的三分之二。

In stark contrast to basic chemicals, investment activity in the field of specialty chemicals is highly dynamic, accounting for around two-thirds of recent chemical investments in Germany.

在特种化学品领域，目前最引人关注的增长市场是电动汽车转型。仅在德国，2023年就有约150万辆电动汽车新登记注册，比上一年多50万辆。根据德国政府的计划，到2030年，电动汽车的数量将增加到1500万辆。

In the specialty chemicals sector, the most prominent growth market at present is the transformation toward electric mobility. In Germany alone, around 1.5 million electric vehicles were newly registered in 2023—500,000 more than the previous year. According to the German government’s plan, the number of electric vehicles is expected to rise to 15 million by 2030.

化工行业能为汽车制造商提供黏合剂和塑料等产品。作为个人交通电气化的一部分，目前正在增加用于电池生产的各种阳极和阴极材料以及电解质。

The chemical industry can provide products such as adhesives and plastics for automobile manufacturers. As part of the electrification of personal transportation, there is currently an increasing demand for various anode and cathode materials, as well as electrolytes for battery production.

锂离子电池生产和半导体行业是特别有前景的市场。例如，巴斯夫已于2023年在施瓦茨海德投产了一家以镍、锰和钴为基础的锂离子电池正极材料生产厂。此外，AMG Lithium公司已建成欧洲首家年产2万吨电池级氢氧化锂的大型工厂，并已投入运营，投资额达1.4亿欧元。

Lithium-ion battery production and the semiconductor industry are particularly promising markets. For example, BASF began operations in 2023 at a plant in Schwarzheide that produces nickel, manganese, and cobalt-based cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. Additionally, AMG Lithium has built Europe’s first large-scale plant for the production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, which has already started operations with an investment of 140 million euros.

电动汽车还通过电池回收利用为化工行业开辟了一个同样巨大且极具吸引力的增长市场。2024年年底，梅赛德斯—奔驰与Primobius合作，在库本海姆建成了第一家此类回收厂，年处理能力超过2500吨。cylib公司正在多尔马根化工园区建设第二家年产量为1万吨的工厂。德国北莱茵-威斯特法伦州将为此提供数千万欧元的资金支持。该厂计划于2026年投产，届时将创造170个工作岗位。

Electric vehicles are also opening up a similarly vast and highly attractive growth market for the chemical industry through battery recycling. By the end of 2024, Mercedes-Benz, in cooperation with Primobius, will complete the construction of the first such recycling plant in Kuppenheim, with an annual processing capacity of over 2,500 tons. A second plant is being built by cylib at the Dormagen Chemical Park, with a planned annual capacity of 10,000 tons. North Rhine-Westphalia will provide tens of millions of euros in funding for the project, which is scheduled to begin operations in 2026 and create 170 jobs.

半导体化学品领域的投资活动也可归于特种化学品。德国是欧洲半导体产业的中心，拥有博世、GlobalFoundries和英飞凌等公司。针对这一市场，瓦克扩建了位于博格豪森的现有工厂，用于将氯化氢气体的纯度提高到99.9995%。位于比特费尔德的Silicon Products公司也建立了一座年产400吨至600吨高纯度碳化硅的工厂，以满足不断增长的半导体市场的需求。

Investment activity in the field of semiconductor chemicals also falls under the category of specialty chemicals. Germany is the hub of the European semiconductor industry, home to companies such as Bosch, GlobalFoundries, and Infineon. To serve this market, WACKER has expanded its existing plant in Burghausen to increase the purity of hydrogen chloride gas to 99.9995%. In Bitterfeld, Silicon Products has established a plant with an annual capacity of 400 to 600 tons of high-purity silicon carbide to meet the growing demand of the semiconductor market.

德国化工行业将利用其创新潜力克服当前的挑战，并为新市场开发创新产品。德国在高水平的创新、生产力和资源效率上仍有优势，仍将是与美国和日本一样具有吸引力的化工生产基地。

Germany’s chemical industry will leverage its innovative potential to overcome current challenges and develop new products for emerging markets. With its continued strengths in high-level innovation, productivity, and resource efficiency, Germany remains an attractive location for chemical production—on par with the United States and Japan.

作者：德国联邦外贸与投资署 Thorsten Bug

Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) – Thorsten Bug