Yuan poised for stronger global role
人民币准备发挥更强的全球作用
The Chinese yuan is approaching a strategic window to accelerate its ascent as an international reserve currency, as the US dollar's role is increasingly questioned, and support for domestic companies in going global is set to become a higher priority for China, economists and policy advisers said.
经济学家和政策顾问表示，随着美元的地位日益受到质疑，以及中国将支持国内企业走向全球列为更优先事项，人民币正接近一个战略窗口期，以加速其作为国际储备货币的崛起。
To translate this opportunity into tangible progress, it is seen as integral to broaden global investors' access to China's capital markets through a more integrated framework, and to significantly raise the capital account liberalization level in a gradual manner to ensure openness as well as stability.
为了将这一机遇转化为切实的进展，至关重要的是通过一个更加一体化的框架来拓宽全球投资者进入中国资本市场的渠道，并以渐进的方式大幅提高资本账户自由化水平，以确保开放性和稳定性。
"Rising geopolitical uncertainties and growing doubts over the United States' fiscal and trade policies create a rare window of opportunity for the renminbi and other currencies like the euro and the yen to gain greater favor among global investors," said Betty Wang, head of Northeast Asia research at Oxford Economics.
牛津经济研究院东北亚研究主管贝蒂·王表示：“地缘政治不确定性上升，加之对美国财政和贸易政策的疑虑日益加深，这为人民币以及欧元和日元等其他货币在全球投资者中赢得更多青睐提供了一个难得的机会窗口。”
Markets have priced in a stronger yuan as investors adjust their allocations amid weakening confidence in the dollar and US interest rate cuts. The onshore renminbi rose to 7.0644 per dollar on Monday, its strongest level since October 2024. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the currency could appreciate to around 6.6 per dollar by 2027.
随着投资者在美元信心减弱和美国降息的背景下调整资产配置，市场已将人民币走强纳入定价。周一，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.0644，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。高盛预测，到2027年，人民币兑美元汇率可能升至6.6左右。
Also accelerating the renminbi's international rise would be the global expansion of Chinese manufacturers, which increases the demand for cross-border renminbi financing and settlement, analysts said.
分析师表示，中国制造商的全球扩张也将加速人民币的国际崛起，因为这会提升跨境人民币融资和结算的需求。
Guo Kai, executive president of the CF40 Institute, said that supporting Chinese companies' overseas expansion has taken on growing strategic importance, as it offers a sustainable and mutually beneficial way for China to manage its trade surplus with the rest of the world.
CF40研究所执行总裁郭凯表示，支持中国企业的海外扩张具有越来越重要的战略意义，因为它为中国管理其与世界其他国家的贸易顺差提供了一种可持续且互惠互利的方式。
The country's leadership has signaled a more assertive, proactive stance toward renminbi internationalization.
中国领导层已表示，将采取更为坚定、主动的姿态推动人民币国际化。
Adopted at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the recommendations for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) called for advancing the internationalization — a fine-tuning from "steadily and prudently" advancing its internationalization set at last year's third plenary session.
中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议通过的关于制定“十四五”规划（2026-2030年）的建议，要求推进国际化进程——这是对去年三中全会提出的“稳步且审慎”推进国际化进程的微调。
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said in October that China will comprehensively enhance the international currency functions of the renminbi, including pricing, payment, investment, financing and reserve.
中国人民银行行长潘功胜于10月表示，中国将全面增强人民币的计价、支付、投资、融资和储备等国际货币功能。
Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that China's pursuit of a currency whose international standing matches its economic influence is "a natural choice", serving the real economy by supporting Belt and Road cooperation and the global expansion of Chinese enterprises.
中银国际证券（中国）全球首席经济学家关涛表示，中国追求一种国际地位与其经济影响力相匹配的货币是“自然而然的选择”，通过支持“一带一路”合作和中国企业的全球扩张，为实体经济服务。
"The renminbi also offers other economies and investors an alternative when the dollar-dominated system is showing rising fragility, helping reduce overreliance on one single currency and bolstering global financial resilience," said Guan.
关说：“在以美元为主导的体系日益脆弱之际，人民币为其他经济体和投资者提供了一种替代选择，有助于减少对单一货币的过度依赖，并增强全球金融韧性，”
The renminbi is now China's largest cross-border settlement currency and the world's second-most used in trade finance, ranking third in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket.
人民币目前是中国最大的跨境结算货币，也是全球第二大贸易融资货币，在国际货币基金组织的特别提款权货币篮子中排名第三。
Despite the progress, overseas investors currently hold only around 3 to 4 percent of onshore stocks and bonds by market value, official data showed. As of the second quarter, the renminbi accounted for 2.12 percent of allocated foreign exchange reserves, far below China's economic weight, according to the IMF.
官方数据显示，尽管取得了进展，但海外投资者目前仅持有约3%至4%的境内股票和债券（按市值计算）。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）称，截至第二季度，人民币在已分配外汇储备中的占比为2.12%，远低于中国经济所占的比重。
Noting that the acceptance of the currency remains constrained as it is not yet fully convertible under the capital account, which tracks cross-border capital flows, Guan suggested lifting the combined share of items classified as "basically convertible" and "convertible" to more than 80 percent of all capital account transactions by 2030, up from about 60 percent at present.
关（Guan）指出，由于人民币在追踪跨境资本流动的资本账户下尚未实现完全可兑换，其接受度仍受到限制。他建议到2030年，将“基本可兑换”和“可兑换”项目的合计占比从目前的约60%提升至所有资本账户交易的80%以上。
Guan, who served at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that future opening-up steps are likely to maintain a prudent and gradual approach, as capital account liberalization could amplify asset price swings and market distortions if domestic reforms fail to keep pace.
曾任职于国家外汇管理局的关表示，未来的开放举措可能会保持谨慎和渐进的方式，因为如果国内改革未能跟上步伐，资本账户自由化可能会加剧资产价格波动和市场扭曲。
Howard Davies, chair of the International Advisory Council of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that some degree of risk-taking and letting the renminbi be more convertible would be inevitable if China aims to build a truly international currency.
中国证监会国际顾问委员会主席霍华德•戴维斯表示，如果中国希望打造一种真正的国际货币，那么承担一定程度的冒险行为、并让人民币更具可兑换性，将是不可避免的。
Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, said, "For the greater internationalization of the renminbi, China would need to further open its financial markets and allow easier access for foreign participants to invest in liquid renminbi assets that could serve as reserves for central banks."
国际货币基金组织亚太部副主任托马斯·赫尔布林表示：“为了推动人民币的进一步国际化，中国需要进一步开放其金融市场，并允许外国参与者更容易地投资于可作为各国央行储备的流动性人民币资产。”
