德银经济学家：贸易战可能进一步拖累德国经济

Deutsche Bank economist: Trade war may further drag down German economy

【环球网财经综合报道】上周三，美国公布的对等关税覆盖全球多个国家和地区，其中对欧盟施加的关税税率为20%。德国作为美国在欧洲最大的贸易伙伴，或将成为这场贸易战中欧洲受损最严重的国家。

[Global Finance Comprehensive Report] Last Wednesday, the US has already announced the reciprocal tariffs covering many countries and regions around the world, which included a 20-percent duty on the European Union. As the US's largest trading partner in Europe, Germany perhaps stands to be the most affected by the new tariffs in Europe in this trade war.

数据显示，2024年德国对美国的贸易顺差达到700亿欧元。

Germany's trade surplus with the United States reached 70 billion euros in 2024, official data showed.

德意志银行研究部高级经济学家Marc Schattenberg表示：“整体来看，2025年的经济风险正在向连续第三年经济衰退倾斜。”他警告称，贸易战可能进一步拖累德国经济，使其陷入衰退的泥潭。

"Overall, the economic risks for 2025 are tilting towards a third consecutive year of recession," said Marc Schattenberg, senior economist at Deutsche Bank Research, warning that the trade war could further drag down the German economy and plunge it into a recession.

Ifo经济研究所Lisandra Flach也表示，德国的贸易可能受到多方面因素的影响。一方面，对美国等国的出口将减少；另一方面，由于其他国家寻找替代美国的出口市场，德国可能面临更激烈的国际竞争。

Lisandra Flach, director of the ifo Center for International Economics, also said that Germany's trade may be affected by many factors. On the one hand, German exports to countries such as the US will decrease. On the other hand, Germany may face more intense international competition as other countries look for alternative export markets to the US.

荷兰国际集团（ING）全球宏观主管Carsten Brzeski同样对德国经济前景表示担忧。他预计2025年德国经济将出现萎缩。

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for International Nederland Group (ING) Research, also expressed concern about Germany's economic outlook, expecting the German economy to contract in 2025.

经济学家们普遍认为，贸易冲突凸显了德国进行结构性改革的紧迫性。单靠补贴无法解决问题，德国需要进行更深层次的改革以提升竞争力。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia称：“德国有能力提供补贴，但我认为不应该也不会将其用于这方面。”

Economists widely believe that the trade conflict highlights the urgency of structural reform in Germany. Subsidies alone cannot solve the problem, so Germany needs deeper reforms to improve its competitiveness. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, stressed, "Germany has the ability to provide subsidies, but I don't think they should and will be used for this."