Global institutions upbeat about China's economic resilience, growth potential

全球多边机构对中国经济韧性和发展前景持乐观态度

BEIJING, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) -- As the year 2025 approaches its end, an increasing number of international organizations and financial institutions have successively upgraded their forecasts regarding China's economy.

新华社北京12月7日电 临近年末，多家国际组织与金融机构陆续上调对中国经济增长的预期。

While acknowledging external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, these institutions generally believe that China's solid economic fundamentals, sufficient policy tools and structural upgrading will sustain its growth momentum.

尽管承认地缘政治紧张与贸易摩擦等外部不确定性，这些机构仍普遍认为，中国坚实的经济基本面、充足的政策工具以及持续的结构升级，将共同支撑其经济增长势头保持稳定。

Financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs released a research report in late November, in which it upgraded its prediction for China's 2025 real GDP growth from 4.9 percent to 5 percent, with even bigger increases forecast for the next two years.

金融巨头高盛在11月下旬发布了一份研究报告，将中国2025年实际国内生产总值增速预测从4.9%上调至5.0%，并进一步调高了未来两年的经济增长预期。

China's real export growth is expected to increase by 5 percent to 6 percent annually over the next few years, up from a previous forecast of just 2 percent to 3 percent, as Chinese goods gain global market share, Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）研究人员在报告中指出，随着中国商品在全球市场份额持续提升，预计未来几年中国实际出口年增长率将升至5%至6%，较此前预测的2%至3%显著上调。

At a key Party plenum in October, the Communist Party of China leadership adopted its recommendations for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). "It calls for upgrades to traditional industries such as metals, chemicals and textiles, and for growth in emerging industries like new energy," said the report, adding that these goals will get broad-based support from all levels of government, from logistics to financing, helping exports to grow.

在十月召开的一次关键性中央全会上，中国共产党领导层审议通过了关于制定第十五个五年规划（2026-2030年）的建议。报告指出，它呼吁升级金属、化工和纺织等传统行业，并促进新能源等新兴行业的增长并加快新能源等新兴产业发展”。报告同时强调，这些目标将获得各级政府从物流到融资等全方位的支持，从而助力出口贸易持续增长。

While keeping its global economic growth forecast stable at 3.2 percent, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday also revised China's GDP forecast for 2025 from 4.9 percent to 5 percent. This adjustment highlights the OECD's recognition of China as a key stabilizer for global growth.

在维持全球经济增长预期3.2%不变的同时，经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）于周二将中国2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期从4.9%上调至5%。这一调整进一步彰显了经合组织对中国作为全球经济增长重要稳定力量的认可。

The OECD noted that, China's fiscal policy has been expansionary with the introduction of a number of measures to support incomes and boost consumption, in addition to the trade-in program for cars and household appliances.

经合组织指出，除实施汽车和家用电器以旧换新计划外，中国还推出了一系列旨在促进消费、支持居民收入的措施，财政政策整体呈现扩张态势。

Multiple foreign institutions have also voiced confidence in China's policy toolkit. Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, believes China's intensification of its fiscal policy, including a new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan (about 70.67 billion U.S. dollars), is likely to provide strong support for domestic demand in both the fourth quarter and early 2026.

多家国外机构也发声对中国政策工具包充满信心。德意志银行首席中国经济学家熊毅指出，中国加力实施财政政策，包括推出规模达5000亿元人民币（约合706.7亿美元）的新型政策性金融工具，有望为今年第四季度乃至2026年年初的国内需求提供有力支撑。

Morgan Stanley, in its latest research report, emphasized that China's economy will grow moderately in 2026, supported by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing and an anti-involution campaign.

摩根士丹利在最新研究报告中指出，在定向政策宽松、渐进式经济再平衡以及反内卷措施的共同推动下，中国经济预计将于2026年实现温和增长。

Domestically, leading financial institutions also echo this optimistic outlook. Zhao Gege, chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities, emphasized China's unique advantages. "The synergy between the super-large-scale market and a strong industrial system provides ample room for growth, with a well-stocked macro policy toolbox."

在国内，头部金融机构也呼应了这一乐观前景。光大证券首席宏观分析师赵格格指出，中国具有独特优势：“超大规模市场与完备产业体系形成的协同效应，为经济发展提供了广阔空间，加之宏观政策工具箱储备充足，为持续增长创造了有利条件。”

Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomist at China International Capital Corporation, noted that China's foreign trade structure is improving, with technological progress reducing trade costs and stabilizing export enterprises' profit margins.

中国国际金融公司首席宏观经济学家张文朗指出，中国外贸结构正持续优化，技术进步有效降低了贸易成本，助力出口企业利润率保持稳定。

Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst at China Securities Co., Ltd., said new consumption segments are emerging as new growth engines, with IP trend toys and domestic brands gaining greater market recognition and accelerating their global expansion.

中信建投证券首席宏观分析师周俊志指出，新消费细分领域正逐步成为经济增长的新动能。其中，IP潮流玩具与国货品牌不仅市场认可度持续提升，也在加速推进全球化布局。

Moreover, many global giants have shown their optimism about the prospects of China's economic development and their willingness to commit to long-term cooperation with China.

此外，诸多国际行业巨头对中国经济发展前景持乐观态度，并表示愿与中国建立长期合作关系。

In September, Danfoss opened a major production base in Haiyan County, east China's Zhejiang Province. In October, Medtronic opened its first digital healthcare innovation center in Beijing, while in November, AP Moller-Maersk opened its flagship logistics center in east China's Shanghai with an investment of over 1 billion yuan.

9月，丹佛斯在中国浙江省海盐县建成一座大型生产基地。10月，美敦力在京设立其首个数字医疗创新中心；11月，马士基集团在上海投资超10亿元建设的旗舰物流中心也正式投入运营。

Notably, this year's import expo in Shanghai recorded 83.49 billion U.S. dollars in one-year intended deals, up 4.4 percent from the previous edition and hitting a new high. Meanwhile, the 138th Canton Fair in south China's Guangzhou saw more than 310,000 overseas buyers and registered on-site intended export transactions worth a total of 25.65 billion U.S. dollars.

值得注意的是，今年在上海举办的进口博览会意向成交额达834.9亿美元，较上届增长4.4%，创历史新高。与此同时，在华南广州举行的第138届广交会吸引了超过31万名境外采购商到会，现场登记的意向出口成交额累计达256.5亿美元。

Stable operation, solid progress in high-quality development and inherent strengths of strong resilience and great potential -- none of these fundamentals have changed, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said, citing the overall performance of China's economy.

国家统计局新闻发言人指出，从中国经济整体表现来看，运行态势平稳、高质量发展扎实推进、经济韧性强劲、发展潜力巨大——这些基本面优势始终稳固，未曾改变。