IEA下调全球石油需求增长预期

IEA Trims Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

【环球网财经综合报道】国际能源署（IEA）周二发布月度报告，下调了未来两年全球石油需求增长预期，并警告称供应过剩问题或将在2026年持续存在。

According to the IEA's latest forecast, global oil demand growth will drop to 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, a decrease of approximately 30% from its previous projection. By 2026, the demand growth rate is expected to slow further to just 690,000 barrels per day. The main reasons for this downward revision of demand include the adverse impacts of trade frictions and the rising penetration rate of electric vehicles, which are gradually replacing traditional oil consumption, especially in many developed countries and regions worldwide.

根据IEA的最新预测，2025年全球石油需求增长将降至73万桶/日，较之前预期减少约30%。而到了2026年，需求增幅预计将进一步减缓，仅为69万桶/日。这一需求下调的主要原因包括贸易摩擦的负面影响以及电动车普及率的上升，后者正在逐步取代传统石油消费，尤其是在全球多个发达国家和地区。

According to the IEA's latest forecast, global oil demand growth will drop to 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, a decline of approximately 30% from its prior projection. By 2026, demand growth is expected to slow further to just 690,000 barrels per day (bpd). The primary drivers of this demand downward revision include the adverse effects of trade frictions and the rising penetration rate of electric vehicles, which are gradually displacing traditional oil consumption—particularly in numerous developed countries and reg

IEA分析师在报告中表示：“4月初贸易摩擦的突然加剧，导致全球经济前景恶化，迫使我们下调需求预测。”在美国宣布一系列关税措施后，全球石油市场立即感受到了冲击。上周，布伦特原油期货价格一度跌破60美元/桶，创下四年来最低水平。尽管截至周二，布伦特期货已小幅回升至65美元附近，但投资者对未来石油需求仍持悲观态度。

The sudden escalation of trade frictions in early April has deteriorated the global economic outlook, compelling us to revise down our demand forecasts," IEA analysts stated in the report. After the U.S. announced a series of tariff measures, the global oil market felt the impact immediately. Last week, Brent crude futures prices briefly fell below $60 per barrel, hitting the lowest level in four years. While Brent futures had edged back up to around $65 as of Tuesday, investors remained pessimistic about the outlook for future oil demand.

在供应方面，OPEC+的产量决策成为关键变量。IEA分析认为，沙特推动OPEC+增产，将5月的增产量推至原计划的三倍，试图迫使其他OPEC成员遵守产量限制，结果却加剧了全球石油供应过剩的局面。与此同时，非OPEC国家的年度增长预期虽然有所放缓，但仍将在2025年创下产量纪录，使供应过剩局面持续。IEA预测，到2026年，石油市场的供应过剩将达到170万桶/日。

On the supply side, OPEC+’s production decisions have emerged as a key variable. The IEA analysis holds that Saudi Arabia pushed OPEC+ to ramp up production, tripling the planned output increase for May in an attempt to pressure other OPEC members to abide by production limits—only to exacerbate the global oil supply glut. Meanwhile, while annual production growth expectations for non-OPEC countries have moderated, they will still hit a record high in 2025, prolonging the supply surplus. The IEA forecasts that by 2026, the oil market will see a supply glut of 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd).