现货黄金创历史新高，一公斤黄金价格首破10万美元

Spot gold has surged to an all-time high, with the price per kilogram breaching the $100,000 mark for the first time.

【环球网财经综合报道】3月31日，贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻，现货黄金盘中刷新历史新高至3111美元/盎司，以公斤计算（1金衡盎司=31.1035克），一公斤黄金的价格首次超过了10万美元。截至发稿，现货黄金日内涨幅达0.79%，报3108.54美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅已超18%。

[Global Network Finance Comprehensive Report] On March 31, the precious metals market witnessed a historic milestone as spot gold hit a record high of $3,111 per ounce. Measured in kilograms (1 troy ounce = 31.1035 grams), the price of one kilogram of gold surpassed $100,000 for the first time. As of press time, the in stock gold day rose 0.79 per cent to $3108.54 an ounce, with a cumulative increase of more than 18 per cent during the year.

同时，COMEX黄金期货价格也强势上涨，再度刷新金价历史高位。截至发稿，COMEX期金日内涨超0.85%，现报3140.80美元/盎司，盘中最高触及3130.2美元/盎司，2025年以来涨幅已达18.5%，料创历史最大季度涨幅。

At the same time, COMEX gold futures prices also surged, hitting yet another all-time high. As of press time, the COMEX gold period rose more than 0.85 per cent in a single day, now at $3140.80 per ounce,after reaching an intraday peak of $3,130.20. Since the beginning of 2025, prices have increased by 18.5%, putting the market on track for its largest quarterly gain on record.

在国内市场，中国黄金珠宝品牌周大福、周生生、老庙黄金、六福珠宝的首饰金价格分别为936元/克、935元/克、934元/克、936元/克。部分投资金条（Au999.9）价格接近740元/克。贵金属行情报价服务平台“融通金”上，投资金条价格约734.87元/克。工商银行、建设银行的部分金条价格则分别达到738.45元/克、739.30元/克。

In the domestic market, the prices of Chinese gold and jewelry brands Chow Tai Fook, Zhou Shengsheng, Laomiao Gold and Liufu Jewelry are 936 yuan/g, 935 yuan/g, 934 yuan/g and 936 yuan/g respectively.Meanwhile, the price of certain investment-grade gold bars (Au999.9) is nearing 740 yuan/gram. On the precious metals quotation platform "Rongtong Gold," investment gold bars are priced at approximately 734.87 yuan/gram.The prices of some gold bars of ICBC and CCB reached 738.45 yuan/g and 739.30 yuan/g respectively.

上期所沪金期货主力合约早盘走强，一度触及725.52元/克，再创历史新高，截至发稿涨幅为1.12%，今年累计上涨达16.7%。上海黄金交易所现货黄金（Au99.99）最高触及726.9元/克，年内涨幅达到18%。

The main contract of Shanghai gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthened in early trading, once hitting 725.52 yuan/gram, a record high. As of the time of writing, the contract was up 1.12%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 16.7%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange in stock Gold (Au99.99) hit a maximum of 726.9 yuan/gram, up 18% during the year.

对于黄金未来的走势，多家机构表达了乐观情绪。据新华财经报道，海通证券梁中华团队认为，全球央行购金对黄金价格的影响力在2022年之后有明显提升，目前主要购金国的官方黄金储备水平尚低，未来还有较大的增持空间。在政策不确定性下，黄金的避险属性发挥了更加重要的作用。

For the future trend of gold, a number of institutions expressed optimism. According to Xinhua Finance, the Liang Zhonghua team of Haitong Securities believes that the influence of global central bank purchases on gold prices will increase significantly after 2022. Currently, official gold reserves in major purchasing countries remain relatively low, indicating substantial potential for future accumulation. Amid policy uncertainties, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset has become increasingly prominent.

梁中华表示，当前黄金价格并未明显高估。在乐观情形下，若美国经济面临滞胀压力，各国央行购金将提速，预计全球央行年购金规模可能上升至1300吨/年，通胀预期抬升1%，那么金价中枢或有望突破3800美元/盎司。在中性情形下，若全球央行购金规模回升至前期高位，年购金1200吨，通胀预期仅抬升0.5%，则金价中枢或将稳定在3200美元/盎司左右。

Liang Zhonghua noted that the current gold price is not significantly overvalued. In an optimistic scenario, if the U.S. economy faces stagflationary pressures, central bank purchases will speed up, the global central bank annual purchases are expected to rise to 1300 tons/year, inflation is expected to rise by 1%, then the gold price pivot or is expected to exceed $3800/oz.In a neutral scenario, assuming global central bank purchases return to previous highs of 1,200 tons per year and inflation expectations increase by only 0.5%, the gold price benchmark would likely stabilize around $3,200 per ounce.

中信证券也认为，近期黄金价格再创新高，主要是海外市场衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。综合当前基本面和资金面数据，预计年内黄金行情可能仍未结束。二季度至年中，海外市场或持续出现类滞胀交易的主线，并利好黄金表现。同时，关税和地缘冲突对黄金的扰动仍未到终点，在不确定性情绪积聚以及释放以前，上述因素对黄金的驱动难言结束。

CITIC Securities also attributes the recent surge in gold prices to recessionary trading and tariff-related panic in overseas markets.Combined with current fundamental and financial data, it is expected that the gold market may not be over during the year. From the second quarter through mid-year, overseas markets are likely to continue reflecting stagflation-driven trading as a dominant theme, which should further support gold performance.At the same time, the disturbance of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on gold is still not over, and the driving of the above factors on gold is hardly over until uncertainty builds up and is released.

从资金面看，黄金多头对黄金当前走向的影响程度已经来到历史最高水平，但交投规模以及热度并未达到历史“最拥挤”区间，资金仍有进一步加仓的空间。

From the financial point of view, the degree of influence of gold bulls on the current direction of gold has come to the highest level in history; however, trading volume and market enthusiasm have not yet hit their historically “most crowded” levels, indicating that there is still room for further accumulation by funds.

此外，高盛也看好黄金的未来走势。高盛认为，亚洲大型央行可能在未来3~6年继续快速购金，中国等国的目标黄金储备比例或从目前的8%提高至20~30%。在极端风险情景下，金价可能突破4200美元/盎司，中期价格风险偏向上行。（陈十一）

In addition, Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about the future trend of gold.The firm anticipates that major Asian central banks are likely to sustain their rapid pace of gold purchases over the next 3 to 6 years, with target gold reserve ratios for China and other economies potentially rising from the current 8% to 20–30%. In an extreme risk scenario, gold prices could break through $4200/oz, with medium-term price risk skewed to the upside. (Chen XI)