Boao Moments 2026: China's economic outlook centers on high-quality development

博鳌时刻2026：中国经济展望，聚焦高质量发展

The "China's Economic Outlook: High-Quality Development at the Core" sub-forum takes place at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China's Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People's Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)

3月24日，在海南博鳌举行的亚洲论坛2026年年会上，“中国经济展望：聚焦高质量发展”分论坛成功举行。（人民网/蔡海若）

Scholars and policy experts gathered at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference on Tuesday, March 24 for a sub-forum titled "China's Economic Outlook: High-Quality Development at the Core" to discuss China's economic trajectory, zeroing in on what "high-quality development" means in practice under the country's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).

3月24日，在海南博鳌举行的博鳌亚洲论坛2026年年会上，一场题为“中国经济展望：聚焦高质量发展”的分论坛吸引了多位学者和政策专家参与。与会嘉宾围绕中国经济未来走向展开讨论，重点聚焦“高质量发展”在“十五五”规划（2026—2030年）中的现实内涵与实践路径。

The session, moderated by Huang Yiping, dean of Peking University's National School of Development, brought together four heavyweights: former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin, former State Council Vice Secretary-General Jiang Xiaojuan, Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public of Policy of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at Italy's Ministry of Economic Development.

本场论坛由北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平主持。出席讨论的嘉宾包括：前世界银行首席经济学家林毅夫，原国务院副秘书长江小涓，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院院长郑永年，以及意大利经济发展部前副部长米凯莱·杰拉奇。

Innovation as the foundation

创新是高质量发展的基础

Lin opened by laying out the theoretical underpinning of high-quality development, arguing that China's five development concepts— innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and shared benefits — can only be realized if each concept is pursued in accordance with local characteristics.

林毅夫在发言中首先从理论层面阐释了高质量发展的基础逻辑。他表示，中国提出的创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念，只有同各地实际情况结合起来，沿着符合本地特点的道路推进，才能真正落到实处。

Justin Yifu Lin, former World Bank chief economist speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China's Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People's Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)

世界银行前首席经济学家林毅夫于2026年3月24日在在海南举行的博鳌亚洲论坛2026年年会上发表讲话。（人民网/蔡海若）

When enterprises develop along lines of local characteristics, Lin argued, they gain market competitiveness and the financial resilience to comply with environmental standards, create employment, and contribute to income redistribution, allowing all five development concepts to be achieved simultaneously.

他指出，企业一旦按照本地特色发展，就更容易形成市场竞争力，也更有财务能力去满足环保要求、扩大就业并参与收入再分配。这样一来，五大发展理念就有可能实现协同推进、同步落实。

On the GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, Lin acknowledged the figure reflects both China's untapped potential and real external constraints. "As long as no major unexpected events occur, achieving 4.5 to 5 percent growth, or even higher, is entirely possible," he said.

谈及2026年4.5%至5%的国内生产总值增长目标时，林毅夫认为，这一目标既体现了中国尚未释放完毕的发展潜力，也反映了当前外部环境带来的现实约束。他表示，只要不出现重大突发事件，实现4.5%至5%的增长、甚至更高增速，都是完全有可能的。

The 15th Five-Year Plan's new emphases

“十五五”规划有哪些新重点

Jiang offered a close reading of what distinguishes the current five-year plan from its predecessors. On innovation, she said the focus is shifting toward total factor productivity, not just nurturing new industries, but using new technologies to upgrade traditional ones. "The 15th Five-Year Plan places equal weight on new industries and on applying new technology to transform existing sectors," she said. "That is the most important meaning of new quality productive forces."

江小涓则重点分析了“十五五”规划与以往五年规划相比的不同之处。在创新方面，她认为，当前政策重心正在转向全要素生产率的提升，不仅要培育新兴产业，也要利用新技术改造传统产业。她表示，“十五五”规划既重视新产业的发展，也同样重视用新技术改造原有产业，这正是“新质生产力”最重要的含义所在。

On openness, Jiang noted a structural shift: China's industrial capacity has reached a level where its trade with developed economies is transitioning from complementary to horizontal competition, competing in the same product categories and quality tiers.

在开放方面，江小涓指出，中国的产业能力已经发展到一个新阶段，中国与发达经济体之间的经贸关系，正从过去的互补关系，逐步转向同类产品、同一质量层级上的横向竞争。

On consumption, Jiang identified it as the weakest link in the current growth model. "Supply is strong, demand is weak — consumption is currently the most important limiting factor," she said, adding that the new plan would direct greater policy effort toward the demand side.

在消费方面，她认为，消费是当前经济增长模式中的短板，也是最关键的制约因素。她指出，目前中国经济呈现“供给较强、需求偏弱”的特征，因此新一轮规划将会把更多政策资源和政策重心投向需求侧。

China's place in a changing world

变化中的世界与中国定位

Zheng argued that the 15th Five-Year Plan carries global significance precisely because it offers a form of institutional certainty in an era of geopolitical volatility. With China expected to contribute around 30 percent of global growth over the next decade, the plan is not merely a domestic blueprint but a stabilizing signal for the world economy.

郑永年表示，“十五五”规划之所以具有全球意义，正是因为它在地缘政治波动加剧的背景下，为外界提供了一种制度上的确定性。未来十年，中国预计将贡献全球约30%的经济增长，因此这一规划不仅是中国自身的发展蓝图，也是在向世界经济释放稳定预期。

Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public of Policy of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China's Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People's Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)

深圳香港中文大学公共政策学院院长郑永年于2026年3月24日在海南举行的博鳌亚洲论坛2026年年会上发表讲话。（人民网/蔡海若）

Zheng also put forward the concept of China's "open-source modernization," a development path that, unlike earlier Western models, seeks to extend the ladder of development to others rather than pull it up. "China's Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure investments, and industrial cooperation are helping developing countries build what they need," he said, arguing this represents a fundamentally different and more equitable model of globalization.

郑永年还提出了中国“开源式现代化”的概念。他认为，与西方早期现代化道路不同，中国并不是在自己发展起来之后就“抽走梯子”，而是努力把发展的机会和能力延伸给更多国家。他表示，共建“一带一路”、基础设施投资以及产业合作，正在帮助发展中国家建设其真正需要的能力和基础条件。这种做法体现出一种与以往不同、也更加公平的全球化模式。

A view from Europe

来自欧洲的观察

Geraci offered an outside perspective, cautioning against Western misreadings of China's strategic intent. China's push for technological self-reliance, he said, should not be interpreted as isolationism. "China is not closing its doors, it is seeking trade on equal and mutually beneficial terms."

杰拉奇则从欧洲视角出发，提醒外界不要误读中国的战略意图。他表示，中国推动科技自立自强，并不意味着中国在走向封闭。相反，中国并没有关上大门，而是在寻求更加平等、互利的贸易关系。

Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at Italy's Ministry of Economic Development speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China's Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People's Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)

意大利经济发展部前副部长米凯莱·杰拉奇于2026年3月24日在海南举行的博鳌亚洲论坛2026年年会上发表讲话。（人民网/蔡海若）

For foreign businesses seeking to engage with China, his advice was direct: read the five-year plan. "Don't ask what you can offer, ask what China needs. So if you are a foreign company and you do semiconductors, come to China. If you're a football player, stay in Europe."

对于希望进入中国市场的外国企业，杰拉奇给出了十分直接的建议：先读懂中国的五年规划。他说，不要只问“你能为中国提供什么”，更要问“中国现在需要什么”。他举例说，如果一家外国企业从事半导体业务，那么完全可以来中国发展；但如果你是一名足球运动员，那可能还是留在欧洲更合适。

Looking ahead, Geraci was bullish on China's innovation trajectory, pointing to advances in areas such as lithography, biopharmaceuticals, and new energy as evidence that China has already entered the first tier of global technological competition. "In the next five to six years," he said, "China will be a leader."

展望未来，杰拉奇对中国的创新前景持乐观态度。他指出，在光刻、生物医药、新能源等领域，中国已经进入全球科技竞争的第一梯队。他表示，未来五到六年，中国有望成为相关领域的重要引领者。