美元主导地位在全球加速失守
The dominance of the dollar has accelerated globally

周祎凡    北京外国语大学
时间:2023-05-28 语向:中-英 类型:财经 字数:2666
  • 美元主导地位在全球加速失守
    Accelerated Erosion of the US Dollar's Dominance on a Global Scale
  • 本报驻埃及特派记者 黄培昭 本报记者 杨沙沙 王佳琳 ●辛 斌 柳玉鹏
    Reporters dispatched to Egypt: Huang Peizhao, Reporters: Yang Shasha, Wang Jialin, Xin Bin, Liu Yupeng
  • 印度、巴基斯坦、伊朗、俄罗斯等12个国家刚刚举行的一场国际会议吸引了全球多家媒体的关注,这次会议最重要的议程就是“去美元化”,推出一个可替代SWIFT的新的跨境支付系统。今年以来,俄罗斯、巴西以及伊朗等中东国家正在加速同美元“解绑”,引发各界关注。从美联储暴力加息到当下正持续的美债危机,美元的角色都在令全球许多国家越来越警惕。
    A recent international conference held by 12 countries including India, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia has garnered global media attention. The most significant agenda of this conference was "de-dollarization" and the launch of a new cross-border payment system as an alternative to SWIFT. Throughout this year, countries in the Middle East such as Russia, Brazil, and Iran have been accelerating their efforts to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, drawing widespread attention. From the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to the ongoing US debt crisis, the role of the US dollar is raising concerns among many countries worldwide.
  • 十二国会议
    Conference of the Twelve
  • 美国“商业内幕网”26日报道称,在本周于伊朗举行的亚洲清算联盟峰会上,俄罗斯和伊朗等国在讨论如何绕开美元。官员们表示,放弃美元是许多国家面对“美元武器化”的必然反应。
    According to a report by "Business Insider" on the 26th, during the Asia Clearing Union Summit held in Iran this week, countries such as Russia and Iran discussed ways to bypass the US dollar. Officials stated that abandoning the US dollar is an inevitable response for many countries in the face of the "weaponization of the dollar."
  • 根据伊朗《德黑兰时报》24日报道,峰会期间,伊朗央行行长与俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、白俄罗斯等国的央行负责人密集讨论了在双边贸易中使用本币结算的话题,另据伊朗国家电视台24日报道,亚洲清算联盟成员国还决定计划在一个月内推出可与SWIFT系统相媲美的系统,称其可满足成员国之间清算货币交易的一切需求。
    According to a report by the Tehran Times on the 24th, during the summit, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran held intensive discussions with counterparts from Russia, Pakistan, Belarus, and other countries on the topic of using local currencies for bilateral trade settlement. Additionally, according to the Iranian national television on the 24th, member countries of the Asia Clearing Union have decided to launch a system comparable to the SWIFT system within one month. It is claimed that this system will meet all the currency transaction settlement needs among member countries.
  • 伊朗第一副总统穆赫贝尔在会议期间表示,“去美元化不再是各国的自愿选择,而是各国对‘美元武器化’的必然反应。”他还表示,美元的疲软对美国的全球影响力构成极大挑战。因此,伊朗将加强与其他国家,尤其是亚洲清算联盟成员国的经济联系。
    During the conference, Iran's First Vice President, Mohsen Mokhber, stated, "De-dollarization is no longer a voluntary choice for countries but an inevitable response to the weaponization of the US dollar." He further expressed that the weakening of the US dollar poses a significant challenge to the global influence of the United States. Therefore, Iran will strengthen its economic ties with other countries, especially member states of the Asia Clearing Union.
  • 成立于1974年的亚洲清算联盟目前共包含9个成员国:孟加拉国、不丹、印度、伊朗、马尔代夫、缅甸、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡。俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和阿富汗也派出代表出席了本次峰会。
    The Asia Clearing Union, established in 1974, currently consists of 9 member countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Representatives from Russia, Belarus, and Afghanistan also attended the summit.
  • 沙特“阿拉比亚”电视台报道称,“去美元化”的概念包括减少对美元的依赖,以及推动其他货币在国际贸易中的使用等。这种努力可以通过多国共同促进本国货币进行双边结算来实现,从而降低美元在国际贸易中的地位。
    Saudi Arabiya TV reported that the concept of "de-dollarization" includes reducing dependence on the dollar and promoting the use of other currencies in international trade. Such an effort could be achieved by countries working together to promote bilateral settlement in their own currencies, thereby reducing the role of the dollar in international trade.
  • 另据俄罗斯媒体透露的消息,今年夏天举行的金砖国家峰会上将讨论“为成员之间的跨境贸易创建一种新型货币”。埃及、沙特、阿联酋等中东国家已经表示希望加入金砖国家。有阿拉伯媒体表示,中东地区的“去美元”道路正越来越宽。
    According to Saudi Arabia's "Al Arabiya" television network, the concept of "de-dollarization" includes reducing reliance on the US dollar and promoting the use of other currencies in international trade. This effort can be achieved through the joint promotion of bilateral settlements using national currencies, thereby reducing the dominance of the US dollar in international trade.
  • 从85%到58%
    From 85% to 58%
  • “去美元化正在以‘惊人’的速度进行。”彭博社近日的一篇报道援引数据分析称,如今美元在全球各国政府外汇储备中所占比例大约为58%。这比2001年时的73%有了明显下降,而上世纪70年代末,美元在外汇储备中的占比还高达85%。有舆论认为,在这样的大趋势下,中东国家同美元加速“解绑”对美元地位的冲击显得尤为明显。原因在于,维护美元霸权的重要基石“石油美元”体系被撼动。
    "De-dollarization is progressing at an 'astonishing' pace." A recent report from Bloomberg cited data analysis stating that the US dollar now accounts for approximately 58% of global government foreign exchange reserves. This is a significant decline from 73% in 2001, and in the late 1970s, the US dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves was as high as 85%. Some opinions suggest that in such a major trend, the accelerated "unbinding" of Middle Eastern countries from the US dollar has a particularly noticeable impact on its dominant position. The reason behind this is the shaking of the important cornerstone of maintaining US dollar hegemony, the "petrodollar" system.
  • “在上世纪70年代初,美国让美元脱离同黄金的直接挂钩后,同沙特等国达成了一个重要的交易——以军事援助换石油美元,即以美元结算石油贸易,同时承诺给中东提供‘安全保障’。”《货币战争》系列丛书编著宋鸿兵25日向《环球时报》记者这样讲述了美元在中东独特地位的由来,“后来,美国要求沙特等国把赚来的石油美元再投向美国国债,这样就形成了一个完整的闭环。”宋鸿兵认为,由于全世界都需要石油,而石油贸易绑定美元后各国外汇储备都以美元为主,这对美国的美元霸权形成起到了关键性的作用。
    "In the early 1970s, after the United States decoupled the US dollar from direct gold backing, it reached an important agreement with countries such as Saudi Arabia - military aid in exchange for petrodollars, settling oil trade in US dollars, while promising to provide 'security guarantees' to the Middle East." Song Hongbing, the author of the "Currency Wars" book series, explained to a reporter from the Global Times on the 25th how the unique position of the US dollar in the Middle East came about. "Later, the United States requested Saudi Arabia and other countries to invest their earned petrodollars back into US Treasury bonds, thus creating a complete closed loop." Song Hongbing believes that since oil is needed worldwide, and with oil trade tied to the US dollar, countries' foreign exchange reserves are predominantly in dollars, which played a crucial role in establishing US dollar hegemony.
  • 摩洛哥前经济与财政大臣瓦拉卢在接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,俄乌冲突升级导致大宗商品价格上涨,通货膨胀和贫困问题加剧,社会矛盾也随之激化。同时,美联储持续的紧缩货币政策对中东多国经济困境的恶化起到了重要推手作用。
    Former Minister of Economy and Finance of Morocco, Valero, stated in an interview with the Global Times that the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rise in commodity prices, exacerbating inflation and poverty issues, and intensifying social tensions. At the same time, the persistent tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has played a significant role in worsening the economic woes of several countries in the Middle East.
  • “在长期对美元依赖后,沙特等中东国家的思路开始产生根本性改变”。宋鸿兵告诉记者,美国名义上在中东实施“用石油美元换安全”的政策,但实际上在中东发动了好几次战争,地区的安全状况非但没有提高,反而越来越乱。“中东国家长期对发展经济、实现技术升级、完成工业化充满渴求,跟美国合作多年后却发现工业没有得到发展,因为美国只是提供军火。”
    "After long-term dependence on the US dollar, the mindset of countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, has begun to undergo fundamental changes." Song Hongbing told the reporter that the United States nominally implemented a policy of "security in exchange for petrodollars" in the Middle East, but in reality, it has launched several wars in the region, which not only failed to improve the security situation but instead caused increasing chaos. "Middle Eastern countries have long had a strong desire for economic development, technological advancement, and industrialization. However, after years of cooperation with the United States, they found that their industries did not develop because the United States only provided military supplies.
  • 国际货币即将迎来新的周期?
    Is the international currency about to enter a new cycle?
  • “历史上,中东地区的能源贸易曾被英镑、黄金和美元等货币主导。然而,随着时间推移,一些中东国家开始考虑减少对单一货币的依赖。在经历了疫情和眼下俄乌冲突持续进行的情况下更是如此。”瓦拉卢表示,“从历史的纵向来看,美元对中东统治的兴衰,也在一定意义上意味着国际货币即将迎来一个新的周期和轮回。”
    "In history, energy trade in the Middle East has been dominated by currencies such as the British pound, gold, and the US dollar. However, over time, some Middle Eastern countries have started considering reducing their reliance on a single currency. This is especially true after experiencing the pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict," stated Valero. "Looking at the historical perspective, the rise and fall of the US dollar's dominance in the Middle East also implies, to a certain extent, that the international currency is about to enter a new cycle and phase."
  • 埃及《财经周刊》杂志副总编侯赛姆在接受《环球时报》记者采访时认为,首先,全球经济格局的演变和新兴经济体的崛起对国际货币体系产生了影响。“随着中国等新兴经济体的崛起,它们的本币在国际贸易和投资中的使用逐渐增加,美元在外汇储备中的相对比例下降。其次,对美元霸权的质疑和全球金融体系的不稳定性也可能促使一些国家多元化其外汇储备。
    Hussein, the Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Egypt's "Financial Weekly" magazine, stated in an interview with the Global Times that the evolution of the global economic landscape and the rise of emerging economies have influenced the international monetary system. "With the rise of emerging economies such as China, the use of their currencies in international trade and investment has been increasing, leading to a relative decline in the proportion of the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves," he said. Furthermore, the questioning of the US dollar's dominance and the instability of the global financial system may also prompt some countries to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.
  • 据伊朗英语电视台25日报道,亚洲清算联盟峰会期间,该组织将寻求接纳新成员,以协助这些国家的去美元化行动。
    According to an report by Iran's English-language television station on the 25th, during the Asian Clearing Union summit, the organization will seek to admit new members to assist these countries in their de-dollarization efforts.
  • 沙特“阿拉比亚”电视台的报道也提到,尽管去美元化在一些国家和地区引起关注,但实施起来并不容易,美元在国际贸易和金融体系中的主导地位相当强大。因此,一些国家和地区试图在双边贸易或区域贸易协定中推动多元化支付方式,并逐渐减少对美元的依赖。
    The report from Saudi Arabia's "Al Arabiya" television station also mentioned that although de-dollarization has attracted attention in some countries and regions, its implementation is not easy due to the strong dominance of the US dollar in international trade and the financial system. Therefore, some countries and regions are attempting to promote diversified payment methods in bilateral or regional trade agreements and gradually reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
  • 在这条道路上,南美比中东的步子似乎迈得更远。为降低拉美地区对美元的依赖,促进地区贸易,巴西、阿根廷等国已经在讨论打造共同货币“苏尔”。但这一过程的复杂性也让南美国家体会到,取代美元作为国际支付体系主导货币并不是一件简单的事。
    In this regard, it seems that South America has taken bigger strides compared to the Middle East. In order to reduce the dependence on the US dollar in the Latin American region and promote regional trade, countries such as Brazil and Argentina have been discussing the creation of a common currency called the "Sul." However, the complexity of this process has also made South American countries realize that replacing the US dollar as the dominant international payment currency is not a simple task.
  • 今年以来,面对强势美元,阿根廷比索等南美货币面临较大贬值压力,进一步增大南美国家所面临的输入性通胀压力和资本外流风险,也降低了政府的偿债能力。
    Since the beginning of this year, South American currencies such as the Argentine peso have faced significant devaluation pressure in the face of a strong US dollar. This has further increased the input inflationary pressure and the risk of capital outflows for South American countries, while also reducing the government's debt repayment capacity.
  • 即便南美多国对摆脱美元依赖的愿望十分迫切,但阿根廷《财富》杂志25日的报道分析称,在拥有不同经济结构和政策的国家之间进行货币协调并不是一件简单的事情。在货币联盟体系中,各国央行面临着所谓的经济政策“三难困境”:不能有固定的汇率、自由的资本流动、独立的货币政策。巴西和阿根廷,乃至拉丁美洲,是否已经准备好开发一种共同货币还很难说。
    Even though many South American countries have a strong desire to break away from dependence on the US dollar, it is not a simple task to achieve currency coordination among countries with different economic structures and policies. According to an analysis by Argentina's "Fortune" magazine on the 25th, in a currency union system, central banks face the so-called "trilemma" of economic policies: they cannot have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and independent monetary policy simultaneously. Whether Brazil, Argentina, and even Latin America as a whole are ready to develop a common currency remains uncertain.
  • 美国《大西洋月刊》杂志分析称,“苏尔”距离真正发挥作用还有很长的路要走,根据欧盟的经验,建立共同货币体系要求区域内各国拥有稳定的政治制度,共享相同的宏观经济政策观念。巴西总统卢拉此前也强调,“苏尔”的目的不是取代拉美国家货币,而是作为贸易和资金流补充。
    According to an analysis by the US magazine "The Atlantic," the creation of the "sul" as a common currency still has a long way to go. Based on the European Union's experience, establishing a common currency system requires regional countries to have stable political institutions and shared macroeconomic policy concepts. Brazilian President Lula has also emphasized that the purpose of the "sul" is not to replace the currencies of Latin American countries but to complement trade and financial flows.
  • 侯赛姆认为,尽管美元在全球外汇储备中的比例不断下降,但仍然是全球最主要的储备货币之一,在国际贸易和金融交易中仍具有重要地位。从这个角度说,“去美元化”不可能一蹴而就,依然任重而道远。宋鸿兵也对记者分析称,美元本身的存在的一系列问题在促使大家推动“去美元化”,但取代美元还需要经历一个比较漫长的进程。▲
    Houssem believes that although the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is declining, it remains one of the world's major reserve currencies and still holds significant importance in international trade and financial transactions. From this perspective, achieving complete "de-dollarization" is not a task that can be accomplished overnight and still has a long way to go. Song Hongbing also analyzed to the reporter that a series of issues surrounding the existence of the US dollar is driving the push for "de-dollarization," but replacing the dollar will require a relatively lengthy process.▲

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