Leaders predict competitive landscape in 2024

领导者们预测2024年的竞争格局

The PIE caught up with industry leaders across international and higher education to find out their predictions for 2024.

PIE采访了国际和高等教育领域的行业领袖，了解他们对2024年的预测。

While 2023 celebrated artificial intelligence, 2024 will celebrate human intelligence, predicts ETS CEO, Amit Sevak.

ETS首席执行官Amit Sevak预测，2023年庆祝人工智能，2024年将庆祝人机智能的。

“In 2024, major paradigm shifts in how we learn and work will accelerate. Leadership, AI, skills and mindfulness will be the main drivers reshaping education around the world,” Sevak shared with The PIE.

2024年，我们学习和工作方式的重大范式转变将会加速。领导力、人工智能、技能和正念将是重塑全球教育的主要驱动力，”Sevak与PIE分享道。

Leadership will be key, as Sevak predicts that elections in the US, and around the world, will influence education policies for the rest of this decade.

领导力将是关键，因为Sevak预测，美国和世界各地的选举将影响本十年剩余时间的教育政策。

Immigration policies will take centre stage, he told The PIE, and these policies will drive more students to Canada than the US among other dramatic shifts in global student flows.

他告诉PIE，移民政策将占据中心位置，这些政策将推动更多的学生前往加拿大，而不是美国，以及全球学生流动的其他重大变化。

In 2024, we can expect that university leaders will fret over funding, student unrest and the value of degrees, said Sevak.

塞瓦克说，2024年，我们可以预计大学领导将为资金、学生骚乱和学位价值而烦恼。

In 2023, we saw examples from across the world of university leaders coming under fire for cuts being made, particularly to modern languages, as was the case in Aberdeen and in West Virginia, to name a few.

2023年，我们看到了来自世界各地的大学领导人因削减而受到抨击的例子，特别是对现代语言的削减，例如阿伯丁和西弗吉尼亚州的情况。

“Real leadership at all levels is our best hope for innovative solutions, better measurement and student success,” said Sevak.

“各级真正的领导是我们创新解决方案、更好的衡量和学生成功的最大希望，”Sevak说。

“A new generation of mission-driven leaders will find purpose in fixing our education systems and building new systems,” he continued.

他继续说：“新一代有使命感的领导人将在修复我们的教育体系和建设新体系中找到目标。”

“Amidst conflict, disruption and change, ignited educators will provide learning spaces that create calmness, security and intention.

“在冲突、混乱和变化中，被点燃的教育者将提供创造平静、安全和意图的学习空间。

“From K-12 and higher ed to early career and workplace, the impacts of the emboldened education leaders, teachers and evangelists will be seen and felt by learners everywhere.”

“从K-12和高等教育到早期职业生涯和工作场所，各地的学习者都将看到和感受到大胆的教育领导者、教师和福音传道者的影响。”

Despite this emphasis on human intelligence and leadership, Sevak predicts AI will continue to explode across education.

尽管强调人类的智能和领导力，但Sevak预测人工智能将继续在教育领域爆发。

“AI start-ups will be funded at higher rates. Many will seek access to student data to run their models. Cries of concern will grow louder on privacy, equity and fair use of AI. Regulators will be hard pressed to keep up. New research around the ethical use of AI in education, like those we launched at ETS this past year, will define new standards for its valid, fair and impactful use,” said Sevak.

人工智能初创企业将以更高的利率获得资助。许多人会寻求访问学生数据来运行他们的模型。对人工智能的隐私、公平和公平使用的担忧呼声将会越来越高。监管者将很难跟上。围绕人工智能在教育中的道德使用的新研究，就像我们去年在ETS发起的那些研究，将为其有效、公平和有影响力的使用定义新的标准，”Sevak说。

“AI is here to stay and will move into every corner of education”

“人工智能将留在这里，并将进入教育的每个角落”

“The genie is out of the bottle. AI is here to stay and will move into every corner of education.”

“妖怪从瓶子里出来了。人工智能将继续存在，并将进入教育的每一个角落。”

For Lil Bremermann-Richard, CEO of Oxford International Education Group, thoughts of a new year lead to reflections on the value of the UK’s international students, and how new policies will play out in their favour, or not.

对于牛津国际教育集团（Oxford International Education Group）首席执行官里尔·布雷默曼——理查德（Lil Bremermann-Richard）来说，新年的想法会引发对英国国际学生价值的思考，以及新政策将如何对他们有利，或者不利。

“International students bring vast cultural, social and economic benefits to the UK. Financially alone, a single year’s cohort of new international students adds almost £26 billion to the national economy, after deducting any costs associated with hosting students,” said Bremermann-Richard.

国际学生给英国带来了巨大的文化、社会和经济利益。布雷默曼——理查德说：“仅在财政上，扣除与接待学生相关的任何成本后，一年的新国际学生就为国民经济增加了近260亿英镑。”

Throughout the year, many in the UK sector have questioned government rhetoric surrounding international students, arguing that policy changes being made are not in line with the value of the country’s international students.

这一年来，英国学界的许多人质疑政府围绕国际学生的言论，认为正在进行的政策变化不符合该国国际学生的价值。

It was announced that as of January 2024, international students on UK taught master’s courses will be banned from bringing family members with them as dependants.

据宣布，自2024年1月起，在英国教授硕士课程的国际学生将被禁止携带家庭成员作为家属。

It’s worth noting that others in the sector expressed a sense of relief at the news, in the hope that it eases pressures such as accommodation.

值得注意的是，该行业的其他人对这一消息表达了一种如释重负的感觉，希望它能缓解住宿等压力。

However, Bremermann-Richard told The PIE that limiting dependant visas will make it impossible for many students to study in the UK.

然而，布雷默曼——理查德告诉PIE，限制家属签证将使许多学生无法在英国学习。

“If we are truly committed to attracting diverse talent, we need to take into consideration the financial costs that could be involved to secure care alternatives, or to travel back and forth,” said Bremermann-Richard.

Bremermann-Richard说：“如果我们真的致力于吸引多样化的人才，我们需要考虑到确保护理替代方案或来回旅行可能涉及的财务成本。”

“We also need to remember that students have lots of options; if presented with a choice of studying in the UK and leaving their dependants behind, or studying elsewhere, like Canada for example, with their family, many will choose the latter.

“我们还需要记住，学生有很多选择；如果让他们选择去英国学习并留下他们的家属，或者和他们的家人一起去其他地方学习，比如加拿大，许多人会选择后者。

“This policy excludes a large pool of people from studying at our universities, to the detriment of the UK and our higher education sector.”

“这项政策将大量的人排除在我们的大学学习之外，这对英国和我们的高等教育部门都是不利的。”

Ron Carson, chief marketing officer at Terra Dotta too shared his predictions for the new year with The PIE, anticipating that competition for international students will continue to grow – especially among US institutions.

Terra Dotta的首席营销官罗恩·卡森（Ron Carson）也与PIE分享了他对新年的预测，预计对国际学生的竞争将继续加剧——特别是在美国机构中。

Terra Dotta’s recent survey The State of Globalization in Higher Ed 2023 concurs with this increasingly competitive landscape – 41% of US international education professionals surveyed noticing heightened competition from other countries for international students.

Terra Dotta最近的调查《2023年高等教育全球化状况》与这种日益激烈的竞争格局相一致——41%接受调查的美国国际教育专业人士注意到来自其他国家对国际学生的竞争加剧。

“This same group reports that cost is the primary factor driving this competition, as studying in other countries is considered less expensive,” said Carson.

卡森说：“这一组人报告说，费用是推动这场竞争的主要因素，因为在其他国家学习被视为一件更便宜的事。”

“As the enrolment cliff in the US approaches more US institutions will move to a data-driven approach to attract and retain international students as well as implement programs to support student success,” said Carson.

卡森说：“随着美国招生悬崖的临近，更多的美国机构将转向数据驱动的方法，以吸引和留住国际学生，并实施支持学生成功的计划。”

“Visibility across global programs will be key. More institutions will integrate their often siloed study abroad and international education departments in 2024.

“全球项目的可见性将是关键。2024年，更多的机构将整合他们通常孤立的留学和国际教育部门。

“Transparent and easy-to-access data on the “global” view of global engagement at the institution will be helpful to leadership as they try to secure more international market share.”

“关于该机构全球参与的“全球”观点的透明和易于获取的数据，将有助于领导层争取更多的国际市场份额。”

In 2024, Carson predicts strong and growing demand internationally for quality virtual education that allows students to access top-tier institutions without physically traveling abroad.

卡森预测，2024年，国际上对优质虚拟教育的需求强劲且不断增长，这种教育允许学生无需亲自出国就能进入顶级机构。

He told The PIE that an increased presence of online learning could be a “game changer” for US institutions in addressing the cost issue as a barrier to study abroad.

他告诉PIE，在线学习的增加可能会成为美国机构解决费用问题的“游戏规则改变者”，这是出国留学的一个障碍。

“This, combined with a prediction for US international education policy changes and more schools adopting enhanced data driven programming, will be key to advancing international education in 2024.”

“再加上对美国国际教育政策变化的预测，以及更多学校采用增强的数据驱动程序，这将是2024年推进国际教育的关键。”