美成印度“最大贸易伙伴” 对中国有何影响
What is the impact of India's "largest trading partner" on China
编者的话：印度媒体近日纷纷报道，美国在2021-2022财年超过中国成为印度最大的贸易伙伴。消息发布后，在印度已加入美国主导的“印太经济框架”背景下，“美国拉拢成功”“中印贸易脱钩”等言论充斥西方及印度媒体。美印贸易到底发生了什么？中国产品在印度将减少吗？中印经贸会削弱吗？《环球时报》记者为此采访了中印两国多名专家和民众。
Editor's note: Recently, Indian media reported that the United States surpassed China to become India's largest trading partner in the fiscal year 2021-2022. After the news was released, under the background that India has joined the "Indo Pacific Economic Framework" led by the United States, the western and Indian media were flooded with comments such as "the success of the United States" and "the decoupling of China India trade". What happened to the US India trade? Will Chinese products decrease in India? Will China India trade weaken? The reporter of the Global Times interviewed many experts and people from China and India.
本报记者 苑基荣 杨沙沙
Reporter: Yuan Jirong Yang Shasha
印度主要买卖美国什么东西
What does India mainly buy and sell United States
据印度《经济时报》报道，印度商工部发布的最新数据显示，美国在2021-2022财年（印度的财政年度是从每年4月1日至次年3月31日——编者注）已超过中国，成为印度最大贸易伙伴，双边贸易额达到1194.2亿美元。从细分数据来看，印度对美国贸易出口额从前一财年约516.2亿美元增加到761.1亿美元，进口额则从约290亿美元提高至约433.1亿美元。印度对美国出口的主要商品包括抛光钻石、医药产品、首饰、轻油和石油、冻虾、化妆品等。印度从美国进口的主要是石油、液化天然气、黄金、煤炭、回收品和废铁、大杏仁等。
According to the Economic Times of India, the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India shows that the United States has surpassed China as India's largest trading partner in the 2021-2022 fiscal year (India's fiscal year is from April 1 to March 31 of the next year - editor's note), with bilateral trade volume reaching $119.42 billion. From the breakdown data, India's trade exports to the United States increased from about 51.62 billion dollars in the previous fiscal year to 76.11 billion dollars, while its imports increased from about 29 billion dollars to about 43.31 billion dollars. India's main exports to the United States include polished diamonds, medical products, jewelry, light oil and oil, frozen shrimp, cosmetics, etc. India mainly imports oil, liquefied natural gas, gold, coal, recycled products, scrap iron, almonds, etc. from the United States.
数据还显示，印中2021-2022财年双边贸易额约1154.2亿美元，较上一财年864亿美元增加约1/3。其中印度对华出口约为212.5亿美元，对华进口约为941.6亿美元。《印度教徒报》报道称，自中国进口商品种类的贸易额在不断增加，排名前100位的进口物项品类，每一项进口额都超过1亿美元。印度专家认为，印度在制成品进口方面的对华依赖并没有任何缓解的迹象。
The data also shows that the bilateral trade volume between India and China in the fiscal year 2021-2022 is about US $115.42 billion, an increase of about 1/3 compared with US $86.4 billion in the previous fiscal year. Among them, India's export to China is about 21.25 billion US dollars, and its import to China is about 94.16 billion US dollars. The Hindu Daily reported that the trade volume of imported goods from China is increasing, and the import volume of each of the top 100 imported goods exceeds 100 million dollars. Indian experts believe that India's dependence on China in terms of imports of manufactured goods shows no signs of easing.
中国外交部发言人赵立坚在5月31日的例行记者会上回应称，根据中方主管部门数据，2021年中印双边贸易额为1256.6亿美元，仍是印度第一大贸易伙伴，且首次突破1000亿美元。中印双方统计口径不同，导致各自公布的贸易额数字有所差异。数据显示，中国从2013-2014年到2017-2018年度，2020-2021年度是印度最大贸易伙伴。除了中国，美国、阿联酋都曾是印度最大贸易伙伴。
sevenAt a regular press conference on May 31, Zhao Lijian, spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, responded that, according to the data of the competent Chinese authorities, the bilateral trade volume between China and India in 2021 will be 125.66 billion US dollars, still India's largest trading partner, and will exceed 100 billion US dollars for the first time. China and India have different statistical caliber, resulting in differences in their published trade volume figures. Data shows that China is India's largest trading partner from 2013 to 2014 to 2017 to 2018, and from 2020 to 2021. In addition to China, the United States and the United Arab Emirates were once India's largest trading partners.
“此次美国成为印度第一大贸易伙伴，各方都不觉得意外，因为美国一直以来也是印度非常重要的贸易伙伴。”中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员刘小雪12日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，中国并非一直是印度第一大贸易伙伴，此次也不是美国第一次成为印度第一大贸易伙伴。一直以来，中印维持比较大的贸易逆差，而印度对美国维持贸易顺差，因此印度一直视美国为重要的出口市场。
eight"This time, the United States has become India's largest trading partner. No one is surprised, because the United States has always been a very important trading partner of India." Liu Xiaoxue, associate researcher of the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 12th that China has not always been India's largest trading partner, and this is not the first time that the United States has become India's largest trading partner. For a long time, China and India have maintained a large trade deficit, while India has maintained a trade surplus with the United States. Therefore, India has always regarded the United States as an important export market.
中国货、美国货，印度更爱哪个
China goods or United States goods, which does India prefer?
印度德里大学教授拉尔对“美国超过中国成为印度第一大贸易伙伴”的新闻并不太敏感。因为在拉尔的生活中，小到螺丝钉大到电视冰箱手机等物件，日常用品多为中国商品。拉尔告诉《环球时报》记者，中国商品物美价廉，几乎没有其他国家商品能匹敌，深受印度消费者喜欢，就连印度人拜神的器具都来自中国。德里著名的“月光集市”，街道两边小店铺里挂满各种装饰花、箱包、鞋帽等，这些绝大部分是从中国批量采购过来的，价格相当便宜。每年排灯节，数一数“月光市场”有多少灯具来自中国，是印度媒体经常用来说明中国商品“入侵”印度的办法。尤其是电子消费品体现最为明显，在班加罗尔主干道甘地大道上，左边OPPO，右边vivo齐刷刷的广告牌蔓延几公里，给路人以极大震撼，甚至很多印度人都认为这两个品牌是土生土长的印度品牌。
Rall, a professor at Delhi University, India, is not too sensitive to the news that the United States has surpassed China as India's largest trading partner. Because in Rall's life, from small screws to large TV, refrigerators, mobile phones and other objects, daily necessities are mostly Chinese goods. Lal told the Global Times that Chinese goods are of good quality and low price, and few other countries can match them. They are very popular with Indian consumers. Even Indian deity worship equipment comes from China. The famous "Moonlight Fair" in Delhi, small shops on both sides of the street are full of decorative flowers, bags, shoes, hats, etc., most of which are purchased in batches from China, and the prices are quite cheap. Every Diwali Festival, counting how many lamps in the "Moonlight Market" come from China is often used by Indian media to explain the "invasion" of Chinese goods into India. In particular, consumer electronics are the most obvious. On Gandhi Avenue, the main road in Bangalore, the billboards of OPPO on the left and vivo on the right spread for several kilometers, which greatly shocked passers-by. Even many Indians believe that these two brands are indigenous Indian brands.
古普塔是新德里一位铁杆“米粉”，他拥有小米在印度所有系列的手机。他告诉《环球时报》记者小米手机圈粉的秘密，“小米性价比非常高，同样配置的其他手机价格要高出小米很多。我更关注小米售后服务，修理非常便宜便捷，有的其他手机修理一次就等于买一部新手机”。古普塔告诉记者，相比中国手机，美国苹果手机价格高，一部最新款手机在印度折合人民币一般在一万元上下，普通印度人消费不起。
Gupta is an iron "rice noodle" in New Delhi. He owns all the mobile phones of Xiaomi in India. He told the Global Times reporter the secret of Xiaomi's mobile phone circle fans, "Xiaomi's cost performance ratio is very high, and the price of other mobile phones with the same configuration is much higher than Xiaomi's. I pay more attention to the after-sales service of Xiaomi, and the repair is very cheap and convenient. Some other mobile phones can be repaired once, which is equivalent to buying a new mobile phone". Gupta told reporters that compared with Chinese mobile phones, the price of Apple mobile phones in the United States is high. The equivalent of a latest mobile phone in India is generally around 10000 yuan, which ordinary Indians cannot afford.
拉尔表示，美国出口印度多为能源产品和农产品，中国出口印度多为制造业产品，给人的印象好像是中国商品占领印度市场。但实际上，在更多隐形场合，例如在新兴信息领域，美国则占据主导。如电商亚马逊、搜索引擎谷歌、社交媒体脸书、推特和WhatsApp等。
twelveLal said that most American exports to India are energy products and agricultural products, while most Chinese exports to India are manufacturing products, giving the impression that Chinese goods occupy the Indian market. But in fact, in more invisible occasions, such as the emerging information field, the United States dominates. Such as e-commerce Amazon, search engine Google, social media Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp
印度发展制造业绕不开中国
India cannot develop manufacturing industry without China
上海复旦大学国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任张家栋对《环球时报》记者表示，美印贸易关系的不断强化，既有疫情因素，也有印度试图“脱钩”中国因素。但安全因素占据重要地位，即借助国内外“恐华”心态，印度加快“对华产业替代”。张家栋认为，中印贸易是受到外交妨碍的市场经济，美印贸易是受到外交鼓励的市场经济。目前中印经贸合作基本面没有变，但要警惕未来美印联合搞“脱钩”中国。
Zhang Jiadong, director of the South Asia Research Center of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University in Shanghai, told the Global Times that the continuous strengthening of US India trade relations is due to both epidemic factors and India's attempt to "decouple" China. However, the security factor plays an important role, that is, with the help of the "fear of China" mentality at home and abroad, India accelerates the "industrial substitution for China". Zhang Jiadong believes that China India trade is a market economy hindered by diplomacy, while the US India trade is a market economy encouraged by diplomacy. At present, the fundamentals of China India economic and trade cooperation have not changed, but we should be alert to the future US India joint efforts to "decouple" China.
张家栋表示，美国推动产业链转移，其效果主要体现在中国、东南亚和美国之间的贸易关系，在印度身上体现得还不明显。
fifteenZhang Jiadong said that the effect of the United States in promoting the transfer of industrial chains is mainly reflected in the trade relations between China, Southeast Asia and the United States, which is not obvious in India.
印度想“与中国贸易脱钩”也并不容易。刘小雪告诉记者，印度一些人想撇开中国，从美国等吸引资本，承接高科技企业，深度参与全球供应链，以推动印度本国制造业的大发展。以特斯拉为例，印度一直希望特斯拉能到该国建厂，但特斯拉采用全球采购的模式，即便去印度建厂，诸多零部件也要从“世界工厂”中国进口。
It is not easy for India to "decouple from China". Liu Xiaoxue told reporters that some people in India want to set aside China, attract capital from the United States and other countries, undertake high-tech enterprises, and deeply participate in the global supply chain to promote the great development of India's domestic manufacturing industry. Taking Tesla as an example, India has always hoped that Tesla can build a factory in this country, but Tesla adopts the global procurement model. Even if it goes to India to build a factory, many parts and components will also be imported from China, the "world factory".
“印度想法很情绪化，目光短浅，为了眼前利益甚至想和中国撕破脸，”刘小雪表示，实际上，只有中国才能转移出印度需要的东西，印度发展制造业是绕不开中国的。▲
"India is very emotional and short-sighted, and even wants to break with China for immediate interests," Liu Xiaoxue said. In fact, only China can transfer what India needs. India cannot develop manufacturing without China. ▲
